2015 Dividend Accumulator

And so with the end of the year, I have managed to achieve $190.90/mth in dividend income for the year 2014. It's way below my $500/mth I had aimed for at the start of the year.

However, I'm setting the ambitious target of $500/mth again for 2015! This despite my very significant AUM reduction :(

Hopefully this can be achieved and exceeded this year!

10 Reasons I'm Not Rich

So I've been in the doldrums for a while figuring out why I'm where I am today and why I've got so little money in the bank.

I came across this article which was a really good read! It basically pin-pointed all my faults, and then some!

Here's a recap of the 10 reasons I'm not rich. Yet.

#1 I Spend Money Like I'm Already Rich
Absolutely. I think I need to cut down on my credit cards, drink less, and throw money around less (whether its for alcohol, toys, food etc).

#2 I Don't Have A Plan
You know, at the start of 2014, I really thought I had something resembling a plan. Obviously that didn't work out looking back.

#3 I Don't Have An Emergency Fund
Fact. I have hardly one. Maybe too little in cold, hard cash. Need to work on that.

#4 I Started Late
Well, I guess when you start from zero at the start of each new year...

#5 You'd Rather Complain Than Commit
Ok this one I'm finally not guilty of. I don't think I'm much of a complainer at all.

#6 You Live For Today In Spite Of Tomorrow
This looks like a double count with #1. It's that whole carpe diem mentality that makes me wanna spend, spend and spend somemore many a time.

#7 You Are A One-Trick Investor
Nah, not me. I'm more like a 'Jack of all trades, master of none' - type of investor in fact. A total opposite. Plus I haven't made my one-trick investment big win yet even.

#8 I Don't Automate
I'm not sure how this helps, but it appears as if I really do not.

#9 I Have No Sense Of Urgency
Maybe...

#10 I Am Easily Influenced
Definitely. Some of my greatest investment pitfalls have been bad recommendations from too frequent trading chats.

Things need to change, and I hope it does in 2015.

Personal Financial Review 2014 - A Messed Up Year

What a messed up year this has been from a personal investment perspective.

I'm heading towards year end literally at square one.

My investment strategies require a huge overhaul and retooling and I have actually put some of that overhaul into effect already.

Things have to seriously change in 2015.

I guess I have some very serious rethinking to do over this festive period.

How Low Can The Ruble Go?

The whole world's talking about the weakening USDRUB right now.

How low can it go?

Here's Bloomberg's latest update today.

This is truly the currency pair of death. You will only profit, and profit ALOT, if you're in the right direction at the high, or at the low. Or you longed USDRUB way back in November. Anywhere else in the middle and you're basically fucked.

Russia looks like its gonna default soon.

Look at the chart below.

Worst Trading Day Ever

One day, I will blog about my worst single day trading loss ever.

But today will not be the day.

:(

FX Trading - A Gambler's Worst Nightmare

I've covered the Itchy Finger Syndrome some time ago.

Now I want to cover why FX trading is a compulsive gambler's worst nightmare.

Let us simply compare online FX trading with going to the casino and playing the lottery with Singapore Pools.

24hr Access, Anytime, Anywhere

Online trading allows a gambler 24hr access, 5 days a week (Mon - Fri). As long as you have internet access, an online brokerage account, then you are all set to make FX bets anytime, and anywhere. FX brokers these days tout extremely sophisticated mobile software platforms that allow traders to fund their account using credit cards, monitor their trade activities, order and trade placements, technical analysis, and deliver high-speed live pricing, all on your simple handphone! The only respite is on the weekends when the markets are closed. This means that at any time the gambler has an irrational yearn to place a trade of get into the markets, they can do so with the simple click and swipe of a few buttons.

Comparatively, the casinos in Singapore are open 24hrs a day, 7 days a week, but the fact that the gambler is required to go to the physical location (MBS or RWS), means that access is not so easy. Keep in mind also that there is a SGD$100 entry levy deterring Singaporeans from entering. So some gamblers might get lazy at home, choosing to pass on going to the casino instead, thereby preventing themselves from irrational gambling decisions.

The national lottery with Singapore Pools current allows bets to be placed via its Singapore Pools physical outlets, or for premium gamblers, the offer of phone betting. Bets range from football, other sports, Toto, 4D and the Singapore Sweep. Gamblers usually also have to physically go to the outlets to place bets. Bet placing is also tedious with the need to shade little boxes of their bet entries. Singapore Pools also does not conduct the lottery draws every day. There are specific days for the lotteries like Toto and 4D to be conducted. Usually 3 times a week.

Ease Of Funding

While the most conventional way of funding any account is using wire transfer, many online FX brokers now offer credit card funding. This is the simple step of inputting your credit card number on your computer, key in the expiry and CVV number, and BOOM! Your funds are credited into your account almost immediately, allowing you to trade while you owe money to your bank. This is ingenius because the risk of default on the broker is actually passed on to the retail banks issuing the credit cards. This is also why the NFA in the US is trying hard to ban credit card deposits for retail traders, although it seems like a longshot that this can be passed into law in the near future. Some even smaller brokers allow funding via Paypal, Moneybookers and many other online wallet types. That's how easy to get money into your account for trading.

Comparatively, for both the casino and Singapore Pools, once a gambler runs out of money, they have to run to the nearest ATM to get more money. This is good because it limits the access a gambler has to funds. Of course the higher premium gambling segment offers credit lines as well and that is also very dangerous access to funds, but not many normal retail gamblers can get access to this credit line. Singapore Pools also accepts NETS payments, a debit card funds transfer of sorts. But none of these beats the credit card in terms of easy access and ease of funding to fuel their gambling yearns.

Leverage

This is probably the worst killer for many compulsive gamblers getting into the FX space. Leverage is basically a magnification of the nominal value of the underlying product. In the case of FX, the standard broker leverage is 100X nominal value. This means that a gambler only requires $1,000 to trade $100,000 worth of a currency pair! This means that any profits or losses are also magnified 100X! There is currently regulation in many developed markets, where leverage is restricted to 50X, but there are many FX brokers out there domiciled in eastern European countries which offer 500X or even 1000X leverage!

Comparatively, betting with the casino and the lottery is entirely 1:1. Only the higher premium gambling segment in the casino gets those credit lines i mentioned above, which gives about 10X leverage. That's absolutely nothing compared to the high leverage space in the FX world!

Investment Vs Gambling

FX trading offers gamblers the excuse that they are investing/speculating using rational decisions rather than pure gambling like in the casino. With the myriad of financial websites and blogs offering endless commentaries about views on different currencies, it is no wonder that many a gambler thinks of FX trading as rational speculation. This is a big mistake for many compulsive gamblers.

In the casino and Singapore Pools, most gamblers already know they are betting whether it is in standard betting games or betting on the outcomes of sporting or lottery events.

This is actually the worst of the lot because this is the standard mindfuck of many compulsive gamblers. The talk-to-yourself self rationalization that what you're doing is different from the gambler types going into casinos. Emotionally, there is self comfort and indiscipline to trade like a gambler thinking it is less bad than walking into a casino. It is actually far worse.
____________________________________________

In conclusion, anyone venturing towards the online FX space should be well aware of what they're doing and rationalize whether the trades they're making are gambling or not. It is easy to rationalize, but to not be emotionally affected by the movements in the markets and to maintain a high level of discipline is actually much harder to do than what many think.

BE SAFE

2014 Dividend Accumulator XXI

Move $$!

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00
25 Aug $83.85
29 Sep $78.33
17 Oct $213.36
24 Oct $79.76
17 Nov $150.00
24 Nov $80.60

Total Dividends for 2014: $2,290.80
Average per Month: $190.90

Short USDJPY On Black Swan Event?

Following my call to long USDJPY, we are now at 115.78 levels, pushing the doors of a break above 116.

And then this piece of news came out on Bloomberg.

My take is that on Dec 14th, anything short of a decisive Shinzo Abe win would actually crush the USDJPY back to 100-105 levels. Even based on his current reducing support, he is still expected to win the snap elections he is calling.

However, I do wonder what the chances of a black swan, Abe loss, is?

Perhaps it is time to consider a directional shift in my long USDJPY call.

Giken Sakata FY14 Net Profit Up

From Dow Jones Newswires:

29 October 2014 Giken Sakata's FY14 net profit up, expects Indonesian oil business to start contributing

GIKEN Sakata posted on Wednesday higher net profits for the fiscal full year ended Aug 31, 2014, despite the discontinuation of a turn-key project in March. Net profit was S$2.1 million or 0.78 cents a share, up from S$445,000 or 0.34 cent a share a year ago.

Revenue slipped 45.5 per cent to S$69.02 million due to the discontinuation of the turn-key project.
The precision-engineering company said a change in product mix resulted in 23.8 per cent growth in gross profit to S$11.7 million for FY2014, up from S$9.5 million a year ago. As a result, its gross profit margin rose to 17 per cent for FY2014, from 7.5 per cent for FY2013.

The group utilised a net cash outflow of S$974,000 from its operating activities during the financial year, compared to the S$2.75 million generated a year ago. Net cash and cash equivalents position on Aug 31, 2014 stood at S$4.44 million.

On May 31, 2014, Giken Sakata entered into a sale-and-purchase agreement with Java Petral Energy Pte Ltd to buy 624,079 Cepu Sakti Energy's (CSE) shares, representing a 53.68 per cent stake, for S$48 million. The payment was satisfied by S$25.2 million in cash and S$22.8 million by the issue of 76 million new shares. The acquisition of the Indonesia-based oil-and-gas services business was completed on Sept 10, 2014.
Looking ahead, CSE is expected to start contributing to the group's earnings from the first quarter of FY2015.

Sydney Yeung, the group CEO, said: "As CSE already has oil producing in its oil fields, its first financial contribution to the group will be recorded in the first quarter of FY2015. Going forward, we will continue to increase our average daily oil production levels and build up our reserve portfolio."
As of Sept 2014, CSE was producing 880 barrels of crude oil per day from 15 oil wells located in two of its five oil fields. CSE has access to more than 300 oil wells under its portfolio of operating licences in Indonesia.

As at Aug 31, net cash and cash equivalents stood at $4.44 million.

Giken Sakata closed flat at 29 cents yesterday.

Long USDJPY

Chart-wise, I can only see it heading up to test 110 again.

Stop at 107.30, TP at 109.20.

2014 Dividend Accumulator XX

A nice little surprise!

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00
25 Aug $83.85
29 Sep $78.33
17 Oct $213.36
24 Oct $79.76

Total Dividends for 2014: $2,060.20
Average per Month: $171.68

2014 Dividend Accumulator XIX

A small little bit....bit by bit...

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00
25 Aug $83.85
29 Sep $78.33
17 Oct $213.36

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,980.44
Average per Month: $165.04

Ezion Holdings Selldown

Wow what a mega selldown today.

Ezion recently hoovered around 1.80 and in the last few days got sold down to as low at 1.57 today. I went to dwelve into the reasons for the selldown.

1) Sold off by a substatial shareholder
798,000 shares were sold by Franklin Resources that were declared to SGX. I don't think its very substantial, but I think they probably started the whole thing.

2) USD-denominated debt
This is the largest reason for the selldown apparently, from what I've read in the forums. However, I find it perplexing that even though there is obvious concern for a rising USD on their debt, their contracts wins and assets are denominated in USD too! So that should act as a natural hedge to a rising USD no?

3) Rising oil prices
This one is somewhat unclear, but the entire Oil & Gas industry has been beaten down the last few days because oil has dropped to USD90/barrel. How low will it go I have no idea, but I do know that the worl is consuming more and more oil at a faster pace than even before, so the downside for oil should be limited. Add to that the cost of producing oil has been rising, while resources have been dwindling (companies have to drill deeper and deeper for crude) so it won't make too much sense that oil continue to fall.

That said, these are just my own justifications and views.

I have picked up some at around 1.60. Consequently, my other fav stock has been dragged down to 2.9/3.0cts too. So sad.

Hopefully it will rebound back to its highs and continue upwards.

BTW Nomura has a very bullish Buy call with a TP of SGD2.67! Wow!

HUAT AH!

Charisma Energy Services Update II

This is perplexing.

From the last time I updated, the stock has only released good news. And yet, it's continued its slide and is now languishing at 3.1/3.2c. I really don't get it one bit.

Maybe it is the outstanding warrants which will dilute the overall float (10B to 11B approximately), yet it doesn't fully explain it since the enlarged float isn't as large, like just a 10% increment, translating into maybe a 10% lower than current valuation.

Given its current price, its market cap is approximately SGD 300mil, which is very low considering than it has won contracts double that amount already.

Highly perplexing.

I really hope there's nothing rotten going on behind the scenes man.

2014 Dividend Accumulator XVIII

Took the Take Share option this month by mistake! though I don't know if that is necessarily a bad thing.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00
25 Aug $83.85
29 Sep $78.33

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,767.08
Average per Month: $147.26

Charisma Energy Services - Changes In Key Management

Recently, Charisma Energy announced changes in Key Management.

So far it hasn't done any good to the share price as it continues its slide toward oblivion.

3.5/3.6 now.

Haiz.

Hopefully it can make a comeback soon.

More contract announcements please!!!

Goldman Says

We had a Technical Analyst from Goldman Sachs come in last week to give us her take of the FX markets. Not only was she smokin' hot, she really knew her shit. So impressed I was that I've been following her TA calls since!

AUDUSD
6 month range between 0.89 - 0.94. Further downside thereafter to 0.80.

EURUSD
Short any bounce to 1.3250. Targetting 1.20.

USDJPY
Short at 109.50 with stop at 110, targetting 105. Long at break of 110 to 126.

USDSGD
Long at break of 1.2750, targetting 1.35.

HUAT AH!

Scotland And The GBP

As with all the latest headlines recently, the Scottish independence vote is basically screwing up the GBPUSD.

One really wonders how much lower will it go with the vote two more weeks to go? Is it worth catching the falling knife?

Trade safe.

Charisma Energy Services And Giken Sakata Trading Halt

What are the chances of both counters experiencing a trading halt on the same day?!

Charisma Energy Services reported that it had secured another contract. This time worth USD72mil over a 7-year period to provide a fleet of 5 offshore support vessels. This is really good news because the contracts are really piling up for Charisma. In fact the document also states that the project is expected to have a positive impact on the group's earnings per share and NTA per share. Why it's still languishing at 4.1 cents is just perplexing to me.

Giken Sakata reported the proposed placement of up to 80,000,000 new ordinary shares. This dilutes the total float by almost 25%. And yet the share price has held strong at 33.5c. Perplexing yet again.

Not sure what to make of the price action, but I'm still very confident of Charisma Energy Services seeing better days in its share price.

HUAT AH!

USD Strength Rebirth

And so the cycle continues.

Just when we all thought that the USD was dying a slow death, the rebirth happens on the back of so many convenient stories.

- Yellen's indication that the US will raise interest rates in 2015.
- Ukraine vs Russia.
- Islamic State (IS) vs Rest of World.
- EU and Japan pursuing quantitative easing strategies.

So all of a sudden, the USD has just gone from strength to strength reversing all the losses against other currencies.

Will we see a turn soon (again)?

2014 Dividend Accumulator XVII

Still nothing exciting.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00
25 Aug $83.85

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,688.75
Average per Month: $140.73

Giken Sakata Is On The Rise

Courtesy of The Edge magazine.

This interview with Sydney Yeung, Giken's largest shareholder, says it all. 

Do you believe in it's story? I actually initiated coverage of it in May.

2014 Dividend Accumulator XVI

Boring stuff.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52
20 Aug $76.00

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,604.90
Average per Month: $133.74

Prospect Capital (PSEC) Secures More Biz

This is very good news for shareholders.

The dividend yields are at close to 13% and dividend are distributed monthly.

Share price is steadily heading upwards even when the general market is not doing so well.

How can I complain?

Charisma Energy Services Secures USD 276mio Contract

Charisma Energy Services announced on 7th August that it has partnered with the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) and secured a 7 year oil processing facility charter contract with a value of approximately USD 276 million.

This is great news for shareholders! It is exactly what the management promised during its AGM in April.

However, the price actually shot up to 4.5/4.6, before languishing back at 4.2/4.3 today. So what is going on?

Well I'm not really sure I can explain any of it, but what I do think is that its share price is being depressed by the existing Charisma warrants still floating out there awaiting to be exercised. This has adversely affected its share price before, and looks like it will continue to act as an overhang, preventing it from moving up further in spite of the large contract wins that we foresee coming. This comes in the form of a previous announcement 1,000,000,000 warrants currently floated that are expiring in 2016 that have a strike price of 0.025.

Hopefully we will see alot more contracts coming in soon.

HUAT AH!

What's Happening To Charisma Energy Services?

Charisma Energy Services released its first half 2014 results on 29th July.

The results were quite in line with what was actually mentioned during the AGM, which was fairly good. It was turning in a profit after several quarters in the red zone.

Then suddenly its share price broker the 4.9/5.0 cents support and is now languishing at 4.1/4.2.

I really wonder what is happening man.

But I am feeling quietly confident enough to accumulate some more on its way down.

HUAT AH!

Charisma Energy Services Update

It's no secret that my largest holdings is in Charisma Energy Services.

Since my last post, there has been hardly any updates from the company.

The only announcement of note was in early May, about the disposal of Yew Hock Marine. Really very slow news.

As such, the price has languished around the 5c mark, which is really quite a stagnation of capital.

The main thing to currently look forward to is its Q2 or H1 results, which should be due in August. I would be expecting profit to be booked and subsequently an upward revision in share price.

Huat ah!

2014 Dividend Accumulator XV

Not much dividends to look forward to, but the updates will still continue.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33
27 Jul $57.52

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,528.90
Average per Month: $127.41

2014 Dividend Accumulator XIV

Wah super long never update liaoz.

Largely due to my surgery and rehab.

Here's a new entry, even though they're few and far between these days.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65
17 Jul $83.33

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,471.38
Average per Month: $122.62

2014 Dividend Accumulator XIII

Very, very slow on the dividend side of things.

:(

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62
24 Jun $38.65

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,388.05
Average per Month: $115.67

More On Craftprint International

Did you know when you’re stuck in a stock due to a bad trade decision, you spend more time actually analyzing the fundamentals of the stock? That is one of the key trader pitfalls in Investing 101.

Sadly, that’s happened to me so many times, simply because I don’t have the discipline to research properly all the time. Even when its apparent that the stocks I properly research prior to invest in generally turn out to be my biggest winners.

So the point of all this is to outline why I’m still holding on to pump-and-dump victim, Craftprint International.

After scouring through the internet and reading it’s Annual Report 2013 as well as half year report 2014, I have found reason to keep holding on. Call it confirmation bias or whatever, it’s just such a natural human emotion that it is almost impossible to escape from.

Firstly, I went back to the reason for the phenomenal rise in price of this stock over a mere two month window.

Take a look at the chart beside. That’s how sharp the spike is. The reason for this was the announcement made on 8 May, stating that the company had entered into a subscription agreement with two investors. Read through that announcement. Basically, it looked as though Craftprint International was going to be subject to a Reverse Takeover of sorts, since if the convertible bonds and options were fully converted by these two investors, they would become the majority stakeholders of the company.

A brief calculation puts the enlarged share float to 168 + 280 + 210 + 20 = 678,000,000 shares. This means that whatever the current price of the stock, it will be worth 168/678 in the event of full dilution. Using the current price of approximately $0.080, a full dilution means the price of the stock would only be worth $0.020!!!

The good news is that the conversion and strike price of the bonds and options respectively, have been set at $0.050, so surely the new investors will not allow the price to fall BELOW their investment price right? Hence there is a likely floor price of $0.050, otherwise it will not make sense for the new investors to converted the Call Options. The non-transferrable convertible bonds have been subscribed already (sunken cost by the new investors) at the cost of $0.050/share.

The second reason I’ve found to hold on to this stock is the fact that its books aren't all that bad. While it is a loss-making company (it’s been reporting losses for 5 years now) AND declining annual turnover, the value of it’s property, plant and equipment has been steadily rising (industrial space is shrinking in Singapore).

Based on it’s 2013 annual figures, the company’s Total equity and liabilities stood at about $33mil. This gave it a per share value of $0.190! So there may be more ‘meat’ in this company than what many people think.

It’s share are currently very illiquid (only 15.85% of the float is in the public’s hands as of the last annual report) so it might be a good opportunity to catch any selldown at ridiculous prices (close to $0.050?).

Hope I’m correct on this.

But once again, it’s always true that only when you’re stuck in a stock due to a bad trade decision, do you spend more time actually analyzing the fundamentals of the stock.

HUAT AH!

Craftprint International

When I set out this blog, I really wanted to make sure that I not only documented my winners, but also my losers as well.

And this is a classic case of me being way too greedy for my own good. When the fingers get too itchy and the yearn to earn a quick buck backfires in the worst way. When a moment's lack of concentration and lack of research results in a prolonged period of hurt.

Enter Craftprint International.

This is quite an illiquid counter that basically rocketed from 2c to 20c in the last couple of months. At it's height, a few major shareholders dumped a boatload of shares and it's come down as fast as it went up (maybe even faster!). Where I came in was to catch a falling knife without doing any research. At 10c, I thought it was cheap to buy and therefore got in at a whim, only for the price to plunged even further.

Currently it is hovering around 8c.

If I had done my research properly (like I do with alot of my investments), I would have been able to identify that this is another pump-and-dump scheme. The syndicates basically 'create' some news like an RTO or potential buy-out etc, and drive the price up on big volume so that the retailers get hyped. Retailers who try to short the counter, knowing that there are no fundamentals, get 'killed' by the sheer volume. And syndicates have the time and money to withstand shortists. Once their target price is reached, they dump their shares like no tomorrow. And usually a couple of major shareholders are involved. The biggest case of such a scheme was the ABL saga last October.

So in Craftprint International's case, it was drummed up from rumours of a potential RTO. Then two major shareholders (including the owner) dumped their shares at the high. Now everyone's just catching the bits and pieces.

I really need to learn to be more careful about these counters.

Guess I will have to take this as another expensive lesson.

Plus I'm suspecting Giken Sakata to be of similar ilk.

Be careful out there.

No Restatement Required By SEC For Prospect Capital (PSEC)

Paydirt!

As reported last night on Seeking Alpha, the SEC has announced that there was no restatement of PSEC's financial statements anymore. This should mean that the stock should bounce back to its original price before the drop ($10.74) or more!

Whoot!

After a few weeks of speculation where I thought there were issues with this whole lawsuit, things have turned out pretty good eventually. Sure glad I picked some up when this stock was down.

Last night PSEC was up 5% to $10.35.

Should head higher soon.

HUAT AH!

Is The USD Dying A Slow Death?

Been reading alot of articles predicting this to happen. The USA is making so many enemies that every other country can't wait to ditch the USD as the world's reserve currency. The latest development is this from Zerohedge.

Basically for many years now, the US government has been borrowing so much money that it has had no choice but to keep printing money (since March 2009) to keep the global cogs running. As things currently stand, it can't go broke as long as it keeps printing money (USD) right? Well, at some stage, the creditors (almost every other country) is going to figure that out. They are going to figure out (if they haven't already) that as more and more USD pours into the financial system, the US government will simultaneously do all in its power to prevent other major powers from valuing its currency too highly against the USD, since that leads to inflation in the US. It will just try its best to make every exchange rate as status quo (as now) as possible. And while some may choose to fight by releasing QE of their own, others are seeking alternatives, like dealing in other currencies.

And that is why, the US stock markets are rallying to new highs every day!

One day, I think, the USD will be but part of a few 'major' currencies accepted worldwide as the reserve standard.

So how?

Well, I believe we retailers need to start shifting our funds into other asset classes. Even holding our funds in SGD is risky because as we know, the MAS currently pegs against a basket of currencies, of which the USD makes up a substantial part of.

IMHO, the best options are: gold, silver, property, RMB, AUD, EUR

Some analysts are actually predicting that gold will hit $5,000 against the USD!

Wow.

Stay safe.

Prospect Capital (PSEC) Drama Update

Following all that drama that PSEC has been facing since that piece of news broke, it is now facing 3 class-action lawsuits. I can't comment too much, but here's a good take on what's been going on.

Another writer from The Motley Fool still thinks its a good opportunity to get in.

A few other analysts have also covered the stock and most have given it BUY ratings.

All in all, along with the comments from alot of investors on Seeking Alpha, there is consensus that PSEC is still a good buying opportunity.

Hopefully can huat from this.

May 2014 Stock Portfolio Breakdown

This comes a wee bit late.

Here's the current portfolio breakdown, to reflect my fear in the rising stock market today. Prices of stocks are going sky-high, volume is decreasing rapidly, and valuations are expensive. Hence I have chosen to hold cash. I have actually let go of quite a few of my regular income producing stocks because I feel that they are starting to look expensive.

42% Growth Stocks
18% Passive Income Stocks
22% Value Investing Stocks
18% Net Cash

As far as having the aggressively overweight portion, it is still present. This stock will hopefully make me rich in time to come.

For country breakdown:

15% US Stocks
85% Singapore Stocks

See last month's stats.

Really Scared Of The Market Now

It's been awhile since I started having the 'something is wrong' feeling.

Today I took things one step further by selling off 1/2 of every US holding that I had. Thankfully every one of these counters are green, so you could say I'm taking abit of profit off the table.

I really have no idea when the crash will come but I have a strong feeling that it will come sooner rather than later.

The S&P hit an all time high today and still keeps chugging upwards, and yet everyone seems to be fearful of the market! Buying when the market is fearful? Perhaps.

I guess I feel better sitting on the sidelines.

Giken Sakata

Initiating converage on this stock. Something appears to be brewing from the movement of the stock price so I am slowly dipping my hands in and hoping to be in the thick of any positive action that comes.

A quick background on this company. Giken Sakata was established in 1979 and subsequently listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange in February 1993. They have manufacturing plants spanning Singapore, Indonesia and China. Since the 1980's, Giken has built a name for itself around the world as an integrated contract manufacturer. Can read more from it's official website here.

The first big piece of news came on March 11, 2014, when Miyoshi Precision sold it's entire stake at a hefty discount to the current share price. This obviously would have led many to think that the share price of Giken Sakata would plunge. However, the reverse happened. After a slight dip, its share price started a very, very steady climb.

Here was a stock that began it's placement at 3.25c, with NTA of not more than 5c, and it is currently trading at 32.5c at the time of this writing. So what gives?

Well one of the clues could come from the key news that on April 11, 2014, it announced an MOU in relation to the proposed acquisition of 51% of Cepu Sakti Energy Pte Ltd. PT Cepu is an Indonesian company which holds the rights to operate and produce oil from two oilfields in the Central Java region of Indonesia, with a total of 148 oil wells. As at the date of the MOU, the Oil Fields are producing a minimum of 300 barrels of crude oil per day. The company's website can be found here.

Since this announcement, there has been hardly any other announcements, but the share price has only been heading in one direction.

I do believe that PT Cepu is yielding something big, and the first signs of this success has not been reported, hence people in the know might be already accumulating the stock. I may wait for a pullback (hopefully), to accumulate more of this counter.

Hopefully this works out.

Huat ah!

2014 Dividend Accumulator XII

Another one of those little itsy bitsy spiders!

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00
26 May $13.62

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,349.40
Average per Month: $113.59

FX Trading - Itchy Finger Syndrome

One of the most common pitfalls of FX trading is the itchy finger syndrome.

What it means is basically that the trader thinks there is an opportunity in the market all the time. This prompts him to become overly eager to get into a bad trade, without much hesitation.

Normally characterized by:

- Placing a trading very soon after getting out of one

- 'Gut' feeling that there is always opportunity in the market

- Maxing out available margin for the largest trade size possible

- Feeling of regret once the trade goes wrong

- Taking very little profit but letting losses run too far

- Perpetually getting stopped out

I can say this is surely one of the most costly trading pitfall. If you can't recognize it and control it, you will lose a lot of money.

Trade safe.

2014 Dividend Accumulator XI

Finally broken the $100 mark! Hope to see more $$ coming in soon!

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00
21 May $500.00

Total Dividends for 2014: $1,349.40
Average per Month: $112.45

Long/Short Weekly EURUSD Call Binary Option

I realize that playing with binary options can blow a hole in your pocket, yet also help you save money. How? Well if properly managed, binaries allow you to place a trade when you have itchy fingers (that's when you're most likely to end in losses), at a fraction of the cost. In fact your losses are limited to the binary option premium that you will pay upfront.

Today, I decided to take the chance on some potential EURUSD volatility. The market hasn't been moving much, but I figure it didn't hurt to buy/sell both OTM (Out of The Money) weekly EURUSD binaries.

Current EURUSD: 1.3715

Long Weekly EURUSD Binary Call @ 1.3875
Long Weekly EURUSD Binary Put @ 1.3575

So I'm hoping for a sharp spike in the coming days!

Huat ah!

2014 Dividend Accumulator X

I have a general view that the markets will weaken in the coming months, hence I will divest some of my dividend-generating stocks.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31
18 May $150.00

Total Dividends for 2014: $849.40
Average per Month: $70.78

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse By 50% In 2014

Naturally, this kind of title will only appear in a financial newsletter that's aimed to shock and awe.

Yet there is a general feeling that this might come true.

Here's a snippet, without going to the sales bit:

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

You can read more of that stuff here.

Lion Teck Chiang Declares Interim Dividend

Wow what a surprise!

Lion Teck Chiang has never been known to distribute much of a dividend.

Although $0.01 isn't alot, its still a nice surprise.

This will add to my passive income :)

Find the announcement here.

Is Prospect Capital (PSEC) In Trouble?

Just as I added to my position in PSEC, this crap had to happen.

So basically PSEC has been asked by the SEC to restate its financials.

It definitely hasn't gone down well with the market, with PSEC share price falling by more than 8% since the news broke last Wednesday.

I'm not very sure what to do with my current holdings, but it is likely I will sit around and watch things unfold abit first before taking action.

Already Seeking Alpha and The Motley Fool have covered the potential impact, but it sure looks like no one really knows the full implications.

Hopefully this isn't anything more than a small matter, and the share price will slowly go back up soon.

Huat ah!!!

April 2014 Stock Portfolio Breakdown

Realized that if I don't do this today, I'll have no time to cover it.

April has been quite fruitful on the dividend front, although when the dust settled, I realized that I was still way, way behind my target for 2014. Hopefully for the rest of this year I can make wiser investments.

Once again, here's my current portfolio breakdown, adjusted to reflect the segmentation more accurately, in the most approximate sense:

54% Growth Stocks
25% Passive Income Stocks
19% Value Investing Stocks
2% Net Cash

I am guilty of being aggressively overweight on a certain stock and that is NOT a good sign. As such I told myself I wouldn't add any more positions to this stock until I regain some balance in my portfolio. Ideally, I would like the ratio above to be 33:33:33:1

For country breakdown:

28% US Stocks
72% Singapore Stocks

See last month's stats.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)

With a market capitalization of 3.4B and a dividend yield of 12.3%, this stock has been my latest addition towards my dividend portfolio.

PSEC is essentially a BDC (Business Development Company) which basically invests in all layers of capital structure, similar to private equity or venture capital investment vehicles.

A quick check shows that the advantages of investing in BDCs include access to potentially lucrative investments in private companies, high current cash flow in the form of monthly cash distributions, and a high degree of liquidity compared to private equity funds.

Hopefully this pays off.

Huat ah!!!

2014 Dividend Accumulator IX

A lot of bits and pieces pouring in today...

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84
02 May $65.31

Total Dividends for 2014: $699.40
Average per Month: $58.28

2014 Dividend Accumulator VIII

Still not growing enough of dividends.

Think I have to reweigh my existing portfolio.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00
30 Apr $105.84

Total Dividends for 2014: $634.09
Average per Month: $52.84

Story Of Shorts II

Continuing from where I previously left off, the slump in tech social media stocks continues!

Have taken profit on Google and really kicking myself for not shorting LinkedIn as well!

Bloomberg just ran a good article of all this.

As for Manchester United stock, the sacking of Moyes has been a revelation as the outlook for the club has become so much more optimistic now. Still the lack of European games (assuming we will likely miss out on the Europa League too) will come back to haunt the club's coffers for sure.

Huat ah!!!

John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT)

This is one of my stocks in my Passive Income portfolio.

Bought this stock at $11.70 some 4 months ago.

Sold it today at $13.27.

My rationale is that taking the $1.57 profit now is more worthwhile than getting approximately $0.05 in monthly dividends (after tax). Afterall, I'd have to wait 2 years to earn that gain in dividends.

My risk is that of the potential opportunity cost of PDT continuing to gain in price and sees dividend growth beyond the two years. So this is not long term thinking on my part. But it is something I'm willing to risk given my uncertainty of the global economy.

Now I'm going to shift my funds to a better yielding stock.

Will consider entering again if the price comes down.

All Quiet On The Trading Front

Something is brewing. The trading world is all too quiet.

Securities trading volumes are at a super low.

FX trading volumes are at a super low.

The Dow is chugging along nicely upwards gingerly on thin volume.

The EURUSD has hovered around 1.38 for far too long.

Something is definitely brewing and it looks like traders are just waiting for a trigger to send everything downwards.

So far the main possibility is the Ukrainian crisis, a sort of soon-to-be proxy war between Russia versus. the US and Europe.

Yet, other key issues could lead to further dampening of trade volumes.

The World Cup 2014 in Brazil will send trading volumes receding as it has done so traditionally.

The US and European clampdowns on high-frequency trading and collusion between investment banks' traders in the FX markets are taking its toll.

At home Singapore is seeing super low trading volume on the SGX. Plus the MAS is planning to introduce deleveraging for FX.

It all looks rather bleak.

We really need some volatility in the markets soon.

Where will it come from?

Charisma Energy Services AGM 2014

This was my first ever AGM of a Singapore-listed company. It was quite an eye opener. I did leave the AGM feeling positive and bullish about the prospects of Charisma Energy. Here are my takeaways.

1) Mr Chew Thiam Keng Is Very Affable

You would think that the Chairman of the board with his kind of credentials and owning what he owns (of which the $2B Ezion Holdings), he'd have a certain air about him. Total bollocks. The man was so humble, polite and nice, it was really refreshing to see. Not only very likeable, he went about the AGM in a professional and concise manner. I have no doubt that Mr Chew will lead Charisma to far greater heights as he did for Ezion after today's meeting. The only downside was that he decline to take a photo with me (saying he does not take photographs).

2) Expect More Contract Announcements 

Maybe that is how companies use their AGMs to pump up their share price. It was suggested/implied (but cannot be confirmed, due to SGX requirements), that Charisma had an extremely strong pipeline. This bodes well for the future share price. I actually asked the question about the direction and prospect of Charisma in the bigger scheme of things, given that it is but one of Ezion's three current 'daughters' (JK Tech and Ausgroup). Mr Chew said the question was hard to respond to as it was akin to asking a man who had three girlfriends, which one was the best. Not sure what to infer from that haha. There was a chuckle drawn from that response. Still, he did say that he was committed to turning Charisma into another Ezion.

3) Share Consolidation

My next question, was whether a share consolidation was on the cards for Charisma. Mr Chew said there wasn't any at the moment. I will take his words at face value for now. But a fellow shareholder actually came up to speak to me later on that some time ago a similar question was raised at the SingHaiYi (another SGX-listed stock) AGM and the response was also a no, but just awhile later they announced a consolidation. Hope this doesn't happen. It would definitely change my impression of Mr Chew and the company if it does.

4) Enlarged Share Float

Another shareholder asked about the enlarged share float which I also mentioned of previously. It is noted that there are still approximately 3+B stock options waiting to be converted at the super low strike price of 0.025. This does not bode well for the share price as there will be a huge dilution. Current share float is almost 10B, so if everything were to be converted, current price would be sliced to maybe almost 4c per share. Not good.

5) The Mothership & Profitability

As expected, there was talk of the cash injection from the Hong Leong Group. With such a strong backer, confidence and opportunities have expanded exponentially for Ezion Holdings and it's 'daughters'. This bodes well in its expansion which I hope will be fast and successful. And hopefully Charisma Energy can truly turn out to be a star value play. One star event to look out for will be its first quarterly profits in Q2 where it will book a $7mil profit. This is a very good development as it puts Charisma Energy firmly in the black.

From right to left:

Yap Thian Huat

Tan Seh Ko

Lim Ka Bee

Chew Thiam Keng

Woo Peng Kong

Cheng Yee Seng

Lim Chen Yang

With that, my AGM experience concluded. As expected, even at such a small AGM (30-40pax), the buffet food ran out in the blink of an eye.

Huat ah!!!

2014 Dividend Accumulator VII

Wow, it's been quite awhile since I got any of these little babies...

Still not enough IMHO!

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97
21 Apr $182.00

Total Dividends for 2014: $528.25
Average per Month: $44.02

Charisma Energy Services Enlarged Share Float

Recently my holdings in this penny stock in Singapore has jumped quite significantly, so I am covering it abit more than usual. Yesterday the price nosedived from its support of 5.8c to today’s current 4.9/5.0.

While this seems to be pretty bad news, the actual reason was due to a 11% increase in share float. From previously approximately 8.6 billion shares floating in the market, the float has ballooned to 9.6 billion,

Based on initial calculations, this share float increment should reduce the price from ((5.8/111)*100) = 5.2c. however, that doesn't seem to have stopped the stock from plummeting to deeper depths.

As such, I have increased my holdings as I am quite confident that the stock is a good value play.

Here are several points to note:

1) Red In FY2013
Booking a SGD421,000 loss in the full year is never a good thing for any listed company. However, this compares with a SGD1,043,000 loss in FY2012. The key here is that Charisma (previously named YHM) was only recently taken over by Ezion Holdings, so the turnaround will take time.

2) Contract Wins
Since the takeover from Ezion, Charisma, YHM and its subsidiaries have won four contracts till date, as far as I can count. The total value of these contract wins amount to USD407mil in total although they range from a period of 3 years up to 20 years. There is a steady flow of contracts coming in on a timely basis and that is what is going to matter in the growth of Charisma Energy.

3) Profit Almost Secured This Year
One of its subsidiaries recently announced a transaction that is expected to be completed in 2Q2014 (which is this quarter!). Upon completion, the transaction is expected to contribute a net profit of approximately USD7mil to the company. This translates to 0.07c in per share earnings, which is a strong positive.

4) Contract Wins Vs Market Cap
I’m not sure if I’m calculating this right, since the some of the contract wins are over an extended period of time (do I need to do this on a per year basis instead?). At today’s price of 5c, the market capitalization of Charisma Energy is now at SGD500mil. Contract wins at USD407mil is worth approximately SGD509mil (assuming USDSGD = 1.25). This means that the forward Price-To-Book Ratio is 0.98. This would mean that the stock is undervalued…in my books at least :P Of course I may be very wrong in assuming that Contract wins = Book value.

5) One Fat Mother
With Ezion holdings on an almost obscene tear recently, buying or investing in so many potential partners, there is a lot of confidence in the stock being able to snag a share of the spoils as its expansion extrapolates. At this rate, Ezion Holdings may turn into a blue chip in a few more years.

With this analysis, I am hoping that I am right in spotting the value in this company and what could potentially be unlocked. This coming Monday is the Charisma Energy AGM and hopefully I will be able to find more reason to keep holding this stock.

Of Ezion Holdings And Charisma Energy

Ezion recently announced another collaboration with another listed company, Ausgroup.

I’m not so sure if this is a good sign, even if several brokers have already reported that there is good synergy in the deal.

What seems to be good about the deal is that there seems to be strong mutual benefits between both companies since Ausgroup fabricates modules and structues for the oil and gas and resources sector, while Ezion provides offshore logistic support services for oil and gas projects in Australia.

Problem that I find unsettling is that after its take over of YHM (now Charisma Energy), it has tried to collaborate with Ocean Sky, which failed quite miserably, followed by another strategic stake in JK Tech Holdings, and now, Ausgroup. Question is why is there a need to take on so many strategic stakes so rapidly, before the various collaborations have played out?

With last October’s spectacular Blumont, Asiasons, LionGold saga and the intricate web that is slowly revealing itself, I do have my worries. Moreover, online chatter also describes this ‘strategic stake spree’ as similar to that of Raffles Education, another listed company, which made use of its ‘track record’ and ‘market darling’ status to get into many ‘strategic’ investments and collaborations, which ultimately proved to be its undoing after it found itself making bad investments.

Hopefully I am wrong.

That Blumont, Asiasons, LionGold Saga

The web of deceit is just getting bigger and bigger.

Someone mentioned that it is turning out into a season of Game of Thrones!

Read the most recent write-up here by Singapore Law Watch. Very good overview of all those involved so far.

To think that there were so many broker BUY calls for these stocks back before their spectacular crash in early October last year. Most brokers have been smart enough to remove all those reccos from their directories. This was the only one I could find online.

Short NZDUSD

One of the few times I'm punting in FX again.

Short NZDUSD @ market, Stop @ 0.8750, TP @ 0.865.

Huat ah!

Long Monthly EURUSD Put Option

For only $12, I get to speculate on more downside for EURUSD.

My strike: EURUSD @ 1.3300

In fact, I bought into a One-Touch Option, meaning that EURUSD just needs to touch 1.3300, instead of ending below it.

HUAT AH!

2014 Dividend Accumulator VI

Wah, more little bits and pieces! Enough to cover lunch for a couple of days...

Still need something big of a boost to get into the hundreds soon...

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01
02 Apr $34.97

Total Dividends for 2014: $346.25
Average per Month: $28.85

2014 Dividend Accumulator V

Coo whee...something in the bank! Albeit a small little piddly sum.

Need a huge boost to get into the hundreds soon...

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11
01 Apr $23.01

Total Dividends for 2014: $311.28
Average per Month: $25.94

2014 Dividend Accumulator Revised

It dawned on me that my stated valued were a mix of USD and SGD-denominated dividends.

Have made the appropriate changes.

01 Jan $197.14
10 Jan $1.55
05 Feb $7.47
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $7.11

Total Dividends for 2014: $288.27
Average per Month: $24.02

March 2014 Stock Portfolio Breakdown

Just happened to remember to do this. Trying to make it a regular thing.

March in general was a month full of dividend (passive income) announcements but I have come to realize that it is also a month of very few payouts. Most will come in April and May. Hopefully I can jump ahead as I do feel that I'm somewhat lagging behind in terms of my passive income target for the year.

Once again, here's my current portfolio breakdown, adjusted to reflect the segmentation more accurately, in the most approximate sense:

44% Growth Stocks
28% Passive Income Stocks
19% Value Investing Stocks
9% Net Cash

From a strategy perspective, this breakdown might explain clearer why I am still relatively far from my target for passive returns. I really should be channeling more funds towards passive income if I want to achieve my target.

For country breakdown:

31% US Stocks
69% Singapore Stocks

See last month's stats.

Story Of Shorts

I have mentioned my strategy to short a few well known stocks based on what I felt were over-priced reactions to general euphoria, fanfare and sentiment.

Facebook
Google
Manchester United PLC
Twitter

Look at them now.

In Manchester United's case, I will short even more stocks now. This is even more of a no-brainer with Manchester United set to miss out on next season's Champions League and preparing a warchest to shell on new players.

Huat ah!

Charisma Energy

Very lackluster trading in the past one month on the SGX.

My pet stock, Charisma Energy (formally YHM) has continued to languish at the 0.059/60 level without much price movement. It has been fluctuating between 0.058 and 0.064 over the month of March. The floor of 0.058 seems extremely well defended.

Hopefully April we can see some positive price movements.

Long Weekly EURUSD Put Option

This morning I had itchy fingers and really wanted to get into a trade even though I've done my best to minimize my FX trading.

Hence I found a great way to gain far more upside with little outlay.

I bought a weekly EURUSD Put Option with a strike of 1.3650. It's currently price of 1.3768 is still quite far away from being ITM (In-The-Money), but for $11, this is a cheap little wager that can last me half hte week at least.

Let's see how the trade goes.

Secret Millionaires Of Reddit

Got to know of this Reddit forum after reading Investment Moats' latest post.

It is really quite amazing that there are so many inspirational and frugal people out there. People who debunk the myth that you need to be lucky, brilliant or entrepreneurial to strike it rich.

All we need is good ol' hard work under employment, have good saving and spending habits, and invest not to lose money (either smartly or adversely). Sounds easy but quite obviously not everyone is up to the task.

Something to think about and plan around, because I have a strong feeling that this is my best route to financial freedom.

Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund (CLM)

Recently found this fund languishing at such a low price (US$6.46).

Paying a ~17% dividend with monthly payouts, this looks like a good investment that many have not set sights on yet.

Will probably accumulate.

Short Manchester United PLC

If you were as big a fan as I am, you'd know by now how much I want David Moyes out.

From 2013 EPL Champions, to current 7th place, out of the League Cup, FA Cup, and 0-2 down in the 1st leg of the UCL against Olympiakos. SAF's legacy was just to tough to find continuity on.

Nobody foresaw such a monumental plummet and for all the advertising sponsors queuing to jump on the bandwagon of supporting purportedly 650 million fans worldwide, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that its revenues will head downwards once the club doesn't make the UCL next season AND spends a bazillion dollars on new players.

The final straw is the poor performances on the pitch, which will likely alienate the club and its fans for some time. This obviously translates to poorer gate receipts less eyeballs globally watching games, and less merchandise purchases. To blame David Moyes or not is a matter of opinion.

At the current prices of $15.23 on the NYSE, this stock is ripe for a short.

Do your own due diligence please.

#moyesout

2014 Dividend Accumulator IV

As what I've learnt in Malay class, sedikit-sedikit lama-lama jadi bukit. It is a Malay proverb that means "Bit by bit, over time, it will accumulate into a mountain"

Here's to many many more bit by bits.

01 Jan $155.23
10 Jan $1.22
05 Feb $5.88
01 Mar $75.00
04 Mar $5.60

Total Dividends for 2014: $242.93
Average per Month: $20.24

At least we've crossed the $20 mark...

The Ukraine And Russia

The situation in the Ukraine is escalating very rapidly.

At this stage, there is a high chance of war happening. And once it does happen, watch out for a very bad reaction in the markets.

Already even with a rate hike by the Russian Central Bank hasn't helped the fast weakening Russia Ruble.

Source: Bloomberg



Trade safe and take your opportunities as they come.

2014 Dividend Accumulator III

What a dry month February was.

Why I like the months of March and April is because this is when the dividends tend to begin to roll in. Since most REITs and income-paying stocks pay out quarterly dividends, we await for the Q1 batch over this period.

If all goes to expectation, I should see a nice healthy flow coming in soon.

So here is the continuation:

01 Jan $155.23
10 Jan $1.22
05 Feb $5.88
01 Mar $75.00

Total Dividends for 2014: $237.33
Average per Month: $19.78

mREITS

mREITs are Mortgage-backed Real Estate Investment Trusts listed in the US. 

They were very much in favour in 2011 and 2012 with very high yields (13-17%) and capital appreciation!

But last year was a tough year for mREITs with talk of the FED tapering. Spreads widened and yields became depressed as talk of mREITs facing increased gearing costs affected the quarterly payouts.

Then suddenly the taper stopped with Janet Yellen choosing to hold on to pumping Fiat money into the system for awhile longer. And mREITs came back in favour again.

I got into some of it late last year, attracted by the falling but still high yields. Even factoring withholding taxes, the yields I could get were around 10-12%. 

After the hold on tapering, these mREITs have shot back up, most have gone past 20% in capital appreciation. And with a hopeful revision of the quarterly payouts upwards, hopefully we will see even more capital appreciation.

Yet, tapering will have to happen at some stage. While Yellen has put a hold on things, she has indicated that tapering will continue probably soon. By then I would assume that most mREITs' prices will get hit again.

But wait, this hiatus has actually done a good thing for mREITs. It has bought time for alot of the mREIT managers, many of whine weren't clear how badly tapering would affect their payouts and stock prices. Already, we are seeing several mREITs started to diversify from mortgage paper, while others are hoarding cash to lower eventual gearing.

These are good moves that eventually prompted me to decide to continue holding my mREITs (it was actually this that I was deliberating about previously). Hopefully I have discipline to keep on holding them for a far longer term. And hopefully they will compound and pay off for me!

HUAT AH!

Facebook Paying USD19B For WhatsApp

It's so ridiculous that it's mind-boggling.

Who inside FB actually came up with such a valuation when Rakuten can buy Viber for just USD900mio?

Even with if only USD4B is in cash and the rest in FB stock, it still hardly makes sense.

Let's look at some of the reasons why its a joke:

1) So Many Alternatives
Viber, Skype, Line, Telegram, WeChat, KakaoTalk...the list just goes on. And each one has got features that differentiate itself, though hardly. So what makes WhatsApp that much different?

2) 400mio Subscribers So What?
With so many alternatives, 400mio is not that big a deal anymore. Many users user several messenger apps on their phones. With FB taking over, more subscribers may leave than flow in.

3) New Charging Schedule?
Obviously whoever decided to buy WhatsApp up there in Facebook HQ thought that charging would easily recoup the money. So how does $1.99 a year sound? Not so bad you say? Tell that to the billions of users who will switch to a free messenger.

4) In Need Of Something Revolutionary
In order to keep subscribers active, something very revolutionary will need to be added to the existing offering of WhatsApp. Have FB already given this much thought? I sure hope so. How much different can a messenger app be?

5) Telcos Want Some Pie
Recently the CEO of Singtel signalled an intent to charge either WhatsApp or its users the use of its network. Well the telcos won't let the messengers eat up its lost revenue (does anyone SMS anymore) with doing anything would they? Get ready of Battle Royale!

Personally, I think its a good idea to short FB stock now.

A US Market Bubble?

Is there a bubble in the US stock market now?

The S&P closed at a high of 1,845 two nights ago and people were already calling that a new high.

Last night it closed at 1,854.

This afternoon the S&P Futures' high of the day was 1,858.

Maybe the lack of tapering from the FED is starting to show as more and more Fiat money flushes the stock markets.

This will only lead to further inflation.

Something's gotta give at some stage, and me feels that that something is gonna happen sooner rather than later.

USDSGD Trade

This trade feels like quite a no brainer if you're in tune with the Monetary of Singapore's fiscal policies.

The current floor is around 1.2580 and overall expectation is for it to go to 1.3.

Of course the markets may counter otherwise, but I think for FX if you're investing based on fundamentals and making trades with longer time horizons (>1 week), it can be quite profitable.

Day trading on FX is one of the surest ways to burn money.

Always remember that 99% of FX traders loss money, 0.9% breakeven, and only 0.1% actual can make money consistently. So the odds are quite badly stacked against you.

My Current Stock Portfolio Breakdown

Since the middle of last year, I have tried my very best to pursue a double pronged stock investing approach. I wanted to keep a portion of the portfolio strictly for passive income investing, and another portion strictly for value investing.

Unfortunately at this stage, I'm still unsure of what my optimal portioning(%) or the portfolio should be. Should it be 50/50? But value investing takes a far longer time to realize any capital gains. How can I achieve my target of attaining $500/mth dividend income in 2014? What if some stocks are both providing good passive income and are undervalued?!

There is still much that I haven't properly considered.

Nonetheless, my current portfolio breakdown is as such, in the most approximate sense:

38% Passive Income Stocks
60% Value Investing Stocks
2% Net Cash

Might have to do abit of rebalancing soon.

Also from a country breakdown:

25% US Stocks
75% Singapore Stocks

Maybe I will add other countries to the mix in future.

Will update on this portfolio breakdown on a monthly basis if possible. And add further data as I see fit.

2014 Dividend Accumulator Continued

As one of my resolutions for 2014 was to amass at least $500 worth of dividends per month from my stock investments, I have decided to blog about it each time I get a credit from my passive income portfolio.

So for the rest of this year, each time I get credited a dividend, I will add it up using the above titled post.

This is what I have since the start of the year:

01 Jan $155.23
10 Jan $1.22
05 Feb $5.88

Total Dividends for 2014: $162.33
Average per Month: $13.53

Really hope I can hit my target by year's end!

Short Gold Position Opened

After deliberating for some time, I was prompted to make my move thank's to Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen's short gold call.

Managed to go short at $1,320.

Let's see how this trade goes.

I noticed that I've called for a short on Gold several times already in the last few years.

HUAT AH!

My New Investment Blog

I have decided to shift all posts that are investment-related over here. This way I get to better manage my posts and privacy a wee bit better.