Final Berserker Rage Of 2022

 Last trading day of 2022.

I lost 20K.

USDJPY long just didn’t work out.

OMG.

Eat grass liao.

What a shitty way to end my trading for 2022.

So sad.

Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2023

 Term The War Economy.

2023's Saxo Outrageous Predictions has got something I hold dear.

A prediction that USDJPY will hit 200!

I've lost and earned a lot from USDJPY over the year.

So a nice holding position to take USDJPY to 200 would be really perfect!

Read more of the Saxo Outrageous Predictions here!

Kevin Magnussen & Saxo F1 Meet The Driver

 We had our Meet The Driver event after so many years (previously we did it with Romain Grosjean).

This time around, we held it at our new Saxo office with F1 car simulators around. 

So clients got to race against Kevin Magnussen as he set the best lap record in the house.

It was a fantastic event and I even got a selfie with him!

Good luck in your F1 career Kevin!

PSNY PE Update

 Remember we got into this PE final round for Polestar?

We’ve finally received the shares.

Alas PSNY is trading so poorly that we are SO in the red.

Damn sad.

My first private equity investment and it’s become a long term hold.

This was supposed to be our HUAT opportunity!

EV stocks have really been pummelled since interest rates began going up.

Shucks.

Not Much Investing Lately

 After a really lousy start to November, I’ve toned down my investing for the month.

Still tempted to get into USDJPY but maybe I’ll wait till after my holiday.

I think there is gonna be a Santa Claus rally, as they call it.

Probably market will tank only AFTER the new year.

For now, just making merry and hoping PSNY soars.

Second Berserker Rage Of 2022

 Sheesh.

When it rains, it pours.

So quickly went crazy again, this time on FX.

Had taken a view than Liz Truss’ resignation would help pump GBPUSD. Instead it tanked due to all this leadership turmoil. Lost $500.

That same evening, went to long USDJPY at its high of 151.80.

What a joke.

BOJ intervention came in just a few hours later, sending it to as low as 146.20. OMG.

At one point I was down 5K+.

Managed to recover to lose ‘only’ 2.8K.

Ouch.

I need to stop this bleeding any further.

First Berserker Rage Of 2022

 Dammit.

Was hoping to avoid this all year.

Last CPI data came out and the US markets tanked 2% right at open.

I shorted the market.

But the market then slowly recovered and ultimately turned green! Up 2% instead!

What a 4% swing!

I ended up losing SGD 3.5K.

Dammit!

Rising Interest Rate Environment

 This is the third consecutive hike of the Fed Funds Rate by 75bp, bring rates to 3% now.

Singapore will soon follow.

With the dot plot predicting the Fed Funds Rate to be around 4-4.5%, we should expect more rate hikes in the next two quarters.

Where does that leave us?

The stock market is tanking really badly, USD is so strong against everything, meaning bye bye gold and crypto.

Best bets are treasuries and fixed deposits.

Clear whatever loan you can too.

Small DCAs into equity portfolios.

Save cash next six months so that you can:

A) further pay up any loans where interest rates are going up too quickly

B) place into fixed deposits yielding >4%

C) buy equities on the cheap

The S&P 500 is testing the June 2022 lows near 3600. From its all time high in Jan 2022 of 4800, that has been a huge nine month drop. Once 3600 breaks, we could even see 2900 and below.

Will it rebound?

Not likely as the fundamentals have not changed. Interest rates are still rising, inflation is still too high, there is quantitative tightening going on, and the economy has not felt the full brunt of many of the recent measures yet.

Stay safe out there.

Saxo Bank Considers Euronext Amsterdam Listing

 Read the public article here.

Hopefully won’t take too long.

Will be great for the whole organization.

Super happy we’ve come this far after so long.

What better way to announce it than during Saxo’s own  30th anniversary party!

#beinvested

Die With Zero

  Been seeing this book recommended a lot lately.

A lot of interesting concepts.

Read the summary here.

Here are the nine main points:

1. Maximize your positive life experiences 
2. Start investing in experiences early
3. Aim to die with zero
4. Use all available tools to help you die with zero
5. Give money to your children or to charity when it has the most impact
6. Don’t live your life on autopilot 
7. Think of your life as distinct seasons
8. Know when to stop growing your wealth
9. Take your biggest risks when you have little to lose

Saxo Markets CBD Roadshow

 We had a roadshow in Raffles Place.

It was our first roadshow post Covid period.

Very fruitful and it was really successful.

Great time to have our newer staff showcase their sales acumen.

Influencer Vibes

 We have equipped our new office with an actually working studio.

I had to have a bit of fun with my funny influencer expressions.

Maybe I can be one some day.

Saxo Markets Singapore Dinosaur

  Many people have asked where the 'Saxo dinosaur' is in our new Singapore office.

In many Saxo offices, each has its own dinosaur, to remind all Saxonians of how important change is.

Adapt or die.

Saxo Markets Singapore's dinosaut is a live-sized Centrosaurus, a genus of Ceratopsian dinosaurs from the late Cretaceous period of Canada (76.5 - 75.5 million years ago).

It can be found on the right side of our sprawling new reception area.

SaxoWealthCare Launch Event

 We had our SaxoWealthCare launch event in the office.

I was one of the speakers. 

I remember how anxious I was, having to struggle with my gout recovery, and not feeling very prepared to host the event, nor talk through my presentation piece.

In the end it all came through pretty okay. Definitely not my best moment, but nothing so terrible that people really complained about (maybe they were just being nice!)

Here're some shots of me talking in front of a large audience.

Polestar Successful Listing

 Polestar is finally listed on the NASDAQ.

Ticker is PSNY

Hope to see it skyrocket!

To the moon!!!

HUAT AH!!!

Saxo Launches SaxoWealthCare

 Saxo Markets in Singapore recently launched the latest robo-advisory wealth management solution, called SaxoWealthCare.

This is touted as the 5th generation of robo-advisors, with state-of-the-art algorithmic automation in construction and rebalancing of your portfolios.

The main draws of SaxoWealthCare are as follows:

1) Entirely personalized and bespoke, based on your individual goals.

Users basically select their journey and input their regular or one-off contributions, and the portfolio engine does the rest of the work! Thereafter, you put in your individual goals, and the rebalancing algorithms then factor these goals in to rebalance accordingly so you attain your financial goals in the most realistic ways possible!

2) Active rebalancing

The use of the word Active cannot be said enough. SaxoWealthCare portfolios are rebalanced daily, while most others are done only half yearly or yearly. This means your asset allocation will always be in line with your risk tolerance.

3) Portfolio protection

For the more risk averse, an added option is the use of Portfolio Protector. This is an advanced balancing mechanism that constantly monitors your risk tolerance and rebalances between equity v fixed income to ensure you do not lose more than what you can tolerate.

Hence, compared to many other robo-advisors out there, SaxoWealthCare stands out as one of the most advanced of its kind. It is really one of the most complete robo-advisors for retirement planning.

Costs are very competitive, with no added fees for the ultra frequent rebalancing mechanism.

In this current poor stock market environment, now is a great chance to pursue a dollar cost averaging strategy using SaxoWealthCare, as you would be capturing the market prices low and, as you constantly make manageable regular contributions, will continue to capture the market performance through out this volatile period. By the time the market heads up again, you’d be in a great position to realize your goals.

Here are some recent public reviews of SaxoWealthCare:

MoneySmart

Seedly 

Financial Horse

How 2022 Is Playing Out For The Year

 So the past six weeks have been quite surreal in the markets.

The Fed has announced QT (Quantitative Tightening) and it starts this month starting at a reduction in Treasury Bill holdings of $50B, rising steadily up until September where it will reduce by $95B monthly. Traders are also betting the Fed is hiking interest rates by at least 250bp this year.

Now back to the past six weeks, the market (especially in the US) has had some time to digest this and clearly it DOES NOT LIKE IT. The market has been tanking since ATH and in the last six weeks have fallen almost 20%!

Last Friday night’s session, the S&P500 index actually touched this 20% mark, which signals an official bear market or recession, but bounced of from there to close still above those technical levels.

Yet the will be more carnage to come as interest rates rise and QT takes funds out of the markets,

QT alone will shrink the market, meaning while in the past, retailers could bank on QE funds to flow in, and cause a meteoric rise in stock markets (and many other correlated asset classes), those in the know will expect the opposite to happen this time around, with a similar opposite scenario playing out.

To make matters worse for the stock markets, as interest rates increase, less market participants can rely on leverage as it gets more and more expensive. Loans become more expensive. Cash becomes more expensive. This will surely further exacerbate the tanking of the stock markets.

What is this going to mean for the retail investor?

IMHO ONLY! DYODD!

Firstly, don’t even think about buying the dip. The pain has only just begun, so no point getting more cash trapped (buy and hold long term liao).

Secondly, consider dollar cost averaging. DCA a small, manageable amount monthly, quarterly, annually. This will help you catch the lows. Yet low can always go lower, maybe even three years of lower lows! So make sure you are comfortable doing this.

Thirdly, watch your loans. As interbank interest rates go up, interest rates on loans will go up. This will impact your loan repayments and thereby your cashflows. Conversely, rates of Fixed Deposits and newly issued Bonds will go up too, so it is a good time to review past commitments and consider some diversification into these asset classes.

Lastly, cash is king. We are heading into a new world order. One where the younger generation may not have seen before. The above global monetary policies PLUS geopolitical uncertainty (Ukraine war, runaway inflation) are bound to continue hurting the markets. Having more cash in hand gives one better peace of mind in times of crisis, and furthermore allows astute investors to deploy cash on the real life changing investment opportunities to come.

Consider this. The last real crash was in 2008’s Global Financial Crisis, and before then was 2000’s Dot-com bubble crash. If you came into the workforce in 2009, you’re a Gen Z and all you’d have ever seen was a bull market. Every time the markets dipped, you just BTFD (buy the dip) and things would go up and you’d make money. 14 years of such optimism. Well as Boomers and Gen X will tell you, you’re in for a rough ride.

Hang on to your hats in 2022. It will be quite a volatile ride.

  Been a long time since I last posted.

Just been too lazy.

We actually travelled in mid-March to Germany and Switzerland. Mainly Switzerland really, and boy what an enjoyable trip that was. With the kids in tow too!

Then after returning, I just became too lazy to blog, consumed by crazy workloads, and renewed retirement aspirations. Even on weekends I look through my phone pictures and promise myself I’d update the blog, and still that comes up to nought.

I’ll try to update those thoughts about my retirement plans hopefully soon!

Using this post to start a new category about Retirement!

Worries About The World Right Now

 This is from Lars Seier Christensen’s latest FB post, translated from Danish.

If Lars is worried, we should all be worried.

Take care and stay safe out there.

———————

I'm worried, very worried.

We are facing - or maybe already in the middle - the biggest crisis in Europe since World War II. Yes, the biggest one. Bigger than the fall of the wall, Hungary, Balkan, The Cold War and whatever else you can name.

The situation in Ukraine is terrible - which I have first hand insight into with over 100 employees plus their families in Ukraine trying to take care of right now. The situation in Ukraine is bad, very bad.

Unfortunately, it can get even worse. It's unclear what Putin's game plan is. What is he trying to accomplish?

It is likely that Putin has underestimated the resistance in Ukraine. It has created problems with the supply chains and demoralization of the Russian troops, but also a need to emerge strong despite the setback.

Putin's dead man walking. He won't be president in 12 months, I think. This time he has lost the support from the oligarchs, which he has otherwise kept injury free from previous crises and sanctions. They lost too much to be able to back him up any longer. They want to get rid of him. Also in the harsh way, if necessary.

Putin has destroyed Russia's economy himself in a few days. The financial market is broken and it won't be long before its citizens are without food and basic necessities. It will be a humanitarian disaster, but there will be no help from those who usually help in such situations.

What does a man who has misappreciated everything and knows he's finished? It's hard to predict. He has tactical nuclear weapons on the border of Ukraine. He is whipped to win to survive. Without a doubt, further invasions by other countries, and in a nightmare scenario, use of nuclear weapons.

Also, it comes from people who have insight into Putin's psychology, and whom I have personally spoken to, that he has completely changed his character in the past few years. He has always been power hungry, unsympathetic and calculating, yet rational and strategic. Now he's rambling and behaving irrational, with raging attacks and inconsistent attacks on his own supporters too.

When a man is done and he knows it - and is mentally unstable at the same time - all bets off.

He has removed all threats and critical noises from his inner circle. This possibly means he doesn't even really know how the situation is really. People just don't dare tell him that.

This probably also means he's so hard to get close that he can't be removed in the very short term. But that he knows it's inevitable in the long run.

What can a man like this do?

Like he said he can't lose this war. And he thinks - with some right - western leadership is weak at the moment.

So he will take great chances to press through his will (and personal survival).

I am honestly very nervous about the situation.

And some of the smartest and most well informed people I know are nervous too. This is a concern for me. This worries me a lot.

I believe there is an insignificant risk of a significant escalation within a short time. We probably talk in weeks rather than months. It can be used of nuclear weapons - in real war or in demonstrations of power.

It may be in the form of confiscation of foreign companies, which will simply complete the meltdown in the Russian economy. It will take decades to recover. A banking sector and a stock market that has been broken apart cannot just be restarted.

It can also be in the form of further invasions - at worst in the Baltic States, which will force NATO to act clearly and elaborate.

If this happens, escalation can come very quickly with a man who has no way to survive. Which has turned off for the stream of information and rational analysis. And as maybe the over-bought has gone crazy, at the worst.

I'm sorry to be alarming, but it would be naive to not have a Plan B over a finished man with 6000 nukes. But wtf is that plan b? On a national but also a personal level? Think about it carefully.

We are facing something I haven't seen since my childhood. Back then, people were afraid of a nuclear war - but because there were rational actors sitting relatively safely in their seats, on both sides of the iron carpet, maybe there wasn't really that much to be afraid of.

But this time I'm not sure the same rational approach exists on the Russian side. The security for one's own position is certainly not in Putin's case.

As I started by saying - I am very worried. This could be bad at least. Really bad.

Be prepared for the worst. Hopefully it won't happen, but it's the biggest risk I've seen in my lifetime.

Ukraine

 Russian invaded Ukraine five days ago. 

It caused the markets to tank.

Now Ukraine's managed to hold out longer than expected.

Wonder how long they can hold out, yet the majority of the free world is on their side.

Hopefully they will prevail. 

Russia is severely hit by sanctions.

Oil is up.

Gold is up.

Crypto is making a slight comeback.

USD is up.

Market Correction

 As we start the new year, a sizable market correction is upon us.

Last week was one of the worst weeks in the US markets, with many stocks down more than 10%.

The crypto market fared even worse, with Bitcoin currently at 35K.

As more expectations of the US interest rates rises (3 expected this year), and Fed tapering by March, it is quite expected that markets are getting very jittery.

In fact I’m of the view that considering that the US basically printed 40% of extra USD in circulation in the last two years alone, the US has definitely a lot to pull back on.

This means that with its tapering, the market is purely left to market forces PLUS the Fed taking money out of the system. Which means a chunk of money in stocks surely exiting.

Does this mean the market is sure to drop for the next few months?

I unfortunately think so.

Stay safe, and hold cash.

The best trade in the second half of this year might just be a high yielding fixed deposit.

Crypto Accounts

 I have started cryptocurrency accounts now, and slowly building up some exposure to various cryptocurrencies. 

I'm currently using CoinHako as my main broker/wallet and Crypto.com as my secondary one.

Main coins I've plowed money in are BTC, ETH, SOL and DOT. 

Hopefully then keep growing in value!

My Saxo P&L 2021

 What a crummy year 2021 has been on this front.

My biggest losses since inception of these statistics in 2016.

Ended the year down $43.5K what a joke.

Hopefully I make it all back in 2022.

I also haven't been very disciplined with blogging on this blog.

So moving forward I think I'll just stop these monthly posts, since they're very similar content and I'm always late to post anyway.

Anyways.

Here's my more profitable trades and my biggest losses. Just look at how big my losses were.

Then here's a breakdown of all my losses by asset class AND over the course of the year haha. Everything I touch also loses money. Geez.

And here are my final stats overall.

It is high time I became more disciplined with my trades.

What this means is that I should be more proactive with penning my trade decisions in a journal. And the more I can do this, the better I will be with managing my FOMO gambling emotions.

Lets see if I can achieve that.

HUAT AH!!!