Mr Market Coming Down

Aaaaaand the market is coming down.

The NASDAQ has reached 17,000 while flirting with ATH of 18,500 just a week ago.

NVDA was done 10% to $760 last night.

TSLA is at $147 last night too.

And this night just be the start.

Even after the war in the Middle East was deescalated.

War in Ukraine still ongoing. Hope Ukraine can find a way to win and soon.

Tensions in the Taiwan Straits rising. Hope nothing happens there.

But the real reason is this.

Markets are worried inflation is too sticky (I really told you so!).

That means we might NOT even have an interest rate cut this year, when stupid market was pricing in up to six cuts this year! How misaligned is that?!

USD Treasury debt is growing uncontrollably.

At this rate all industries relying on loans will struggle. The leveraged banks. Tech. IT. Property. REITs. BDCs.

Crypto is a conundrum. No one really knows what’s gonna happen after the halving. And that is happening tonight.

Gold is flying through the roof, hitting past $2,400 yesterday.

All I can say is to keep some powder dry and have some cash in hand to seize any good opportunities. It feels like volatility is coming back in quite a big way.

Good luck and stay safe!

First Berserker Rage Of 2024

 Argh.

I feel so stupid.

Knew this would happen but I let it play out the way it did anyway.

Bet too heavy of ultra-leveraged USDJPY.

Kept feeling like the BOJ would intervene at some point.

Also kept pushing my stop too close so it was really easy to get stop-hunted.

And it happened.

Ended up losing $6K.

Ouch so painful :(

Global Worries

 Feeling a little worried lately about global developments recently.

Ukraine seems to be losing the war against Russia the aggressor. In the war of attrition, it is already quite a miracle that they’ve held strong on for three years now, but they are beginning to lose ground quickly as more supporting countries turn more right winged.

Israel’s invasion of Gaza over Hamas’ Oct 7th atrocities has turn global moral opinion against them and now seems to be escalating wider with Iran and the US possibly drawn in.

Myanmar civil war where the resistance appears to be gaining ground is a positive thing considering the repressive junta. The junta’s recent law to draft conscripts is so worrying.

Philippines’ South China sea confrontations with China over their nine-dotted line claims appears to be escalating. 

Trump looking more and more likely to win the coming US elections and then he’s going to cause a lot of havoc in global affairs such as stopping support for NATO, escalating trade wars with China and totally neglecting SEA. So worrying.

These current affairs make me think about how and what I need to do to position myself financially, mentally, emotionally and maybe even physically!

UOBOne Account Nerfed

 Boooooooo…

The best high yield savings account (HYSA) has been nerfed, but still quite good among the rest.

Probably in anticipation of interest rate cuts in the US, UOB has gone ahead to nerf their power HYSA, what a pity.

From earning 5% pa with a monthly average balance of $100K, now it has been reduced to earning 4% pa with a monthly average balance of $150K.

Sadly we can’t complain too much as there are not many better alternatives out there.

So I’ll still to it and pump some more savings that way.

The next best is still OCBC360 but it might be a matter of time before that one is nerfed too.

I know some have mentioned Maribank, but right now I use Trust as the third option. Maybe I’ll open an account with Maribank and try too.

IREIT Global Update

 This REIT I have followed closely since the popular finance blogger ASSI took a big position in it.

Unfortunately the price keeps dropping because of the uncertainty in global interest rates and uncertainty in Europe (its properties are entirely in Europe).

Yet, when it is dividends time, this REIT continues to pay really well, yet without overtaxing itself. It is prudent and management makes very good decisions aimed to benefit shareholders.

What a bumper dividend this time round! I will use the proceeds to either reinvest or to buy something else undervalued in Europe (I like that its dividends I’ve chosen to pay out in EUR), as I’ve done with the last few years of its dividends.

But the market keeps devaluing it.

I do question myself what’s wrong but I can find as much issues as another big holding of mine, PSNY.

So I do feel quite convicted to not only keep holding but to find some opportunities to average down.

Hopefully they are as undervalued as I see them.

HUAT AH!!!

A Taste Of Retirement

 In any case wanted to mention my taste of retirement.

This week is the school holidays so I took a whole week off.

We travelled to Ipoh which I’ll blog about later but came back on a Wednesday.

Then yesterday I took to exercising the whole morning to burn off that 2-3kg of awesome Ipoh food. By noon the kids had come home and I just nuahed around and napped from 3-5pm.

By evening we had a dinner and then I binged on Netflix this new Korean drama called Dr Slump.

Could this be my early taste of retirement?

March Investment Updates

 PSNY continues to bleed and taking a toll on my overall portfolio.

Market feels toppish so I’ve actually reverted to a little more cash. Took profits where I could.

I have this bad habit of letting my losers run for years and that’s what I’m still doing. 

Crypto is on a tear and basically more than 2x for me already. Think I’ll need to take some profits before April’s halving.

Cash is king now and UOBOne and OCBC360 combo is super awesome. Up and coming is Trust which could be my third liquid cash pillar once I max the earlier two out.

No berserker rages yet this year! This is a really big achievement for me and hope to keep that going. All my little punts are smaller and more rational, resulting in a higher win rate even if at small amounts.

Also shorted XAUUSD to earn really good and sticky carry.

Huat ah!

PSNY Update

 One of my worst investments ever!

In a good year for me financially, this has continued to turn in a fail report card as it just keeps sliding down to oblivion.

Mind you, this was once my largest single investment for a good while. Today it is but a mid table investment that I might have to write off.

Pui!

Feb Early Signs

 Feb early signs point to spending more money.

PSNY’s drop is unrelenting. Not sure what to make of it.

Everything else is going good.

The NASDAQ is just powering up and up and up.

All else being equal, basically not taking more risks than necessary this month and let everything cruise.

Crypto is powering up and up and up too! It’s definitely printing :)

Bullish 2024 Ahead

 2024’s tilt is towards a bullish stance.

Bar some type of major war on a global scale (I know there are worrying pockets all over the world right now), it looks like the global economy can chug along nicely.

Interest rates in the US are sufficiently high, with no increases in the horizon, means we are either going to see expected rate cuts or a surprise of zero cuts. In between the expected three cuts vs zero cuts, my personal stance is one cut this year and maximum two cuts.

Main reason for this is that inflation is going to be sticky. And we’re seeing exactly why the stock markets are heading up. Inflation also causes the stock market to go up.

So here’s my own hypothesis below and I am ONLY TALKING TO MYSELF SO THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANY SORT OF WAY.

This is bad of course because at some point, people will not be able to afford (people are cutting back heavily on spending since start of the year, layoffs in tech and finance is crazy high) >> consumer purchases will come down drastically >> companies cannot keep up with their overly inflated sales numbers >> flushed institutional liquidity has to invest to keep up with inflation and expectations >> PE will skyrocket >> bubble territory and ATHs.

We are in ATH territory already but is this a bubble yet? My opinion is that we are not even close yet. PE multiples are still not at euphoric zones and you have stocks like the magnificent seven (GOOG, META, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN) that’s powering into this year with overwhelming strength. 

I also think it is a good time to load up on the magnificent seven but to be very nimble and be ready to sell when we are possibly at the top of the bubble. Of course we will never be able to time where this bubble is so chances are is I will end up buying at the high or selling too early. I am already DCA-ing regularly into a few of the seven, that’s at least my own strategy.

Meanwhile, resist the attempt to short the US markets all through Q1-Q3. Review again in Q4 and see where we are then.

Meanwhile, keep other portfolios separate! 

Dividend portfolio should be kept separate. High interest rate environment has not been kind to it last year but this year it is already recovering and providing some token passive income so I’m glad that I stayed the course. Looking to grow it further as interest rates come down.

Cash portfolio is also growing stronger and this will serve as potential war chest or emergency funds if other portfolios do not perform well. Just save a bit here and there where possible and resist always replying everything into the markets.

Crypto portfolio is STRONG. Just stay for the ride, no expectations but this should 2x or 3x if everyone says BTC and ETH and where it’s supposed to go. Going into the new year up 30% is already a big yay.

Gambling portfolio stopped altogether in 2024 to save money. Lots of money to be saved here if I resist gambling at all and so far so good this year! Just resist losing money to stupid bets.

Hope to huat big big this year!!!

Closing January Out

 Stopping all day trading for the coming three days.

January has been a crazy huat month for me and what a start for the new year it has been on this front! Hopefully we continue in the same vein all year!

Just follow the uptrend and ride the ATH wave!

This year I’ve turned bullish and as much as the geopolitical situation appears worrisome, there is the belief that the US is printing SO MUCH USD that the stock markets can only go one way and that is up.

For January the main profits came from Options, Stocks and the US Indices. Shiok max.

It also means inflation may be coming in strong. So staying invested in the market while keeping an adequate war chest will be key in case the market drops.

Be safe out there.

HUAT AH!!!

Scam Alert

  << SCAM ALERT >> There are scammers out there posing as me trying to scam victims into transferring them money purportedly for attractive investment gains. 

If you have been contacted by someone by phone or social apps you believe to be posing as me and they are asking for funds, please block them and report the numbers or links used to your local police/authorities.

I have attached on my social media, a screenshot of an imposter posing as me circulating on Telegram (neither Saxo nor myself will use Telegram to communicate with you for any official matters). 

Do be wary and stay safe out there.

Weird Trades

 Something really weird happened last night.

For some very strange unknown reason, I woke up at 4.30am.

Instinctively I checked my expiring options positions.

I was holding on to several large short put positions that were expiring, most were ITM, which meant I was prepared for them to be assigned and pay up for the underlying shares.

The moment I logged into my account, it showed my margin unearthly high at 95%! I was almost about to get stopped out!

So I quickly did an additional top up without understanding why, and brought that margin down.

Then I stay up until past 5am until the market closed.

I found out that in the last few minutes of expiry, the price of the underlying stock was moving quite rapidly, hence causing the margin for the options to spike. So very, very luckily I could do a very quick top up so shore up my margin %, else I would have been stopped out of ALL my other margined positions as well!

All in, it was an easy 10K profit which could have been a 5K loss had I breached my margin limits.

Phew!

Furthermore, the underlying stock jumped 6% for a Friday session, which also meant some of my sold puts expiring OTM, meaning I earned the premiums and had more liquidity for the next short put play! Super nice!

Looks like 2024 is not turning out to be so bad afterall!

A Good Jan So Far

 It’s been a pretty good Jan so far.

USDJPY trade finally closed with a really, really, really nice profit!

No unnecessary berserker rages!

BTC breaking out $$$!

Stock markets approaching ATH!

Dividend portfolio recovering from 2023 quite fast!

Hopefully this positivity continues through the year!

Huat ah!

Long USDJPY

 Starting my year with a long position on USDJPY.

USDJPY just turned the new year at around 141 flat.

That’s a 10 big figure move DOWN from its high.

Definitely a lot of room to retrace but it could continue to weaken downwards who knows.

So a small position will do so I don’t get carried away in the new year.

Investment Resolutions Upcoming

 Just like my New Year’s resolutions in my other personal blog, I’d like to commit to some finance-related resolutions too.

Let me have a think and I’ll pen some of my thoughts soon.

Definitely one item is to have ZERO Berserker Rages in FY24!

Also maybe a full year dividend target goal would be nice.

And a significant increase of networth overall.

Hopefully I can be more disciplined and thereby increase my networth and meet other investment goals in this new year.

HUAT AH!