Saturday 26 September 2015

Risk Aversion

Recently, I'm beginning to learn that everything we've learnt in the investment world is wrong.

Risk aversion is the arch nemesis of investing.

It used to be constantly shoved down our throats that investing was the only way to fight inflation. Rather than keep our money is savings accounts earning pathetic interest rates, we were far better off investing that money for a historic return of X% that would stave off inflation and hence keep up with rising consumer prices.

Yet the ability to save is a very strong virtue. Given our Asian roots, we are far better savers than people in the west. 

And maybe it is this ability that has withstood the test of time.

Saving and letting cold hard cash lay idle, is not the worst idea in the world. Because many a times, the best trade we did, was the trade we didn't make.

At least when you let your cash lay idle, you do not suffer the anxiety and worry of your investment going wrong (which, believe me, happens a lot). Even better yet, you do not suffer WHEN the investment goes wrong and end up with you suffering loses instead.

Save well, and save for a rainy day.

Saturday 19 September 2015

The Collaborative Economy

The collaborative economy is defined as initiatives based on horizontal networks and participation of a community. It is built on "distributed power and trust within communities as opposed to centralized institutions" (Rachel Botsman), blurring the lines between producer and consumer.

I was lucky enough to attend Rachel Botsman exclusive event talk in Singapore about the collaborative economy last week. And what a brilliant mindfuck that was. I think everyone in the room was equally impressed by the level of 'out-of-the-box' thinking she promoted.

Here are the areas she identified which were ripe for disruption.
> Complex Experiences
> Waste
> Broken Trust
> Redundant Intermediaries
> Limited Access

People I spoke to felt that her talk revolutionized their way of thinking, inspired them to push boundaries and encouraged more critical thinking towards disruption. The disruption of industry was actually the topic of the day, particularly in the FinTech space.

Several ideas put forward really set up some critical thinking in that room:

- We have always been used to the idea of B2B, and B2C. But C2C? That's what the collaborative economy is about.

- Monetization of space and vacancy. Ideas and companies like Bla Bla Car, TaskRabbit, Airbnb, Uber and Rent-a-pet are the ideas of the future.

- The concept of turning Social Networking into Service Networking and monetizing this.

- Trust is the most valuable commodity of the future. And monetizing trust will be crucial for the collaborative economy to be efficient.

- The new world order demands Access over Ownership. People don't value ownership of any asset as much as access to that asset as and when they feel like it. Hence if you can provide access without the high cost of ownership, then you will unlock the opportunity cost of sinking time, effort and money acquiring ownership of this asset.

- The smartphone is the remote control to the physical world. All businesses have to go into technology to survive.

- The concept of finding the PAIN that people are experiencing and solve it!

- The collaborative economy has created an environment where one of the most valuable hotel chains owns no properties (Airbnb), one of the most valuable transport companies owns no vehicles (Uber), one of the largest online content providers does not produce its own content (Facebook) and so on. That, to me, was mind-blowing.

- Another speaker also covered the underlying power of Alibaba and Tencent.  With a database of about 800 million users. They could easily turn into one of the largest financial powerhouses in the world simply by monetizing this user base.

Otherwise you can easily Google and read more about the collaborative economy.

I even managed to get a picture with Rachel Botsman herself!



Tuesday 15 September 2015

Property Prices In Districts 15 & 16

Are slowly coming down!

A quick search has yielded some interesting results so far.

I firmly believe there is more weakness to come and if patient enough, we will be able to find some bargains.


Saturday 5 September 2015

USD Strength And The Rate Hike

Will they or won't they?

I'm talking about the U.S. Fed hiking rates this month. 

The world is anticipating a rate hike, and yet there is just so much going against such a move all of a sudden. The USD is becoming so strong that many are already saying it is TOO strong. All major currencies are still going ahead with QE (Euro, Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen) and if the rate hike goes overboard, growth in the U.S. could be adversely affected.

Recently initiated a position in AUDUSD @ 0.6950. Yet it appears there is even further downside in the AUD as commodity prices continue to stay weak, China is slowing down, and the USD prepared for a rate hike.

Yet I am fairly confident the AUD cannot allow its currency to devalue so far below 70c.

Really don't know if this trade will work out but let us see.