We will be launching this soon.
Still ironing out some of the kinks but I’m testing this vigorously and I’m finding some things that I really like.
Basically we will allow investors to take advantage of borrowing at a currency with ultra low interest like CHF or JPY, to buy stocks in USD or SGD for much cheaper interest!
That’s one of the best best setups that no other broker is offering!
Now we just need a nicer UI to reflect this market leading facility.
Look at it fly!
Now I wished I’d bought more when it dipped below $1 just six months ago!!!
The hype is real!
Invested in this small cap Aussie stock about a year ago.
Basically does counter drone products and services.
Since the start of the year it’s taken off in a massive way! Currently more than 3X my very first investment!
Drone warfare is the future!
Trump has called on April 2nd to be Liberation Day.
Basically it is when the tariffs levied by the USA on many other nations begins.
Now without going into the politics of it and my own sentiment, let’s take a look from a vesting angle where I personally feel we can be better positioned.
Short USD - tariffs will mean less countries will sell to the US, so demand for USD will decrease. USD will only increase if US interest rates go up (which they are not likely to) or if the IS produces enough to export globally that demand for USD increases
Long JPY, AUD - this then means more global trade via other global currencies. And there are many to choose from but here are my top two choices. JPY is because Japan is poised to raise interest rates, and their currency has depreciated obscenely much in the last two years. AUD is because Australia has been in the doldrums from a poor China downturn for the last two years and with China rising, Australian produce and commodities will be in demand again and AUD will naturally appreciate.
Long China - talk about a waking giant. China performance has been in such doldrums for too long and with Trump’s isolationist policies, China is poised to take on more authority in the world order and that means the rise of China. Will the US regret and start to curb their rise? Only time will tell but China is the largest world power currently capable of challenging the USA.
Long Ex-US Defence - who’s going to be able to rely on Uncle Sam for protection anymore? Everyone and their mothers are already thinking or pivoting to either their own defence more seriously, or looking at other partnerships. This likely means the largest pivot from US defence contractors to Global defence contractors that the world has seen this century.
Short US Equities, Long World Equities - this is probably one of the most predictable arbitrage trades now. The US is isolating and naturally more of the global obsession towards the US stock market for the last ten years, is about to fade. How quickly this plays out would be anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will be soon.
Long Gold - no brainer here, the world is getting very uncertain and Gold is continuously breaking new highs. It is slated to go higher as the world situation becomes very volatile. Holding physical is even better.
Long Bitcoin - this is a little bit of an outlier, but the technical aspect of BTC being a finite store of value (even if it has no utility) is the same argument as Gold. It is just that Gold is the standard store of value in uncertain times and has been around for far longer.
Anyway all these opinions are purely my own and do not represent any recommendations to trade. Please do your own due diligence when investing or speculating!
Let’s HUAT together!
It’s been a rough two weeks for stocks and many investment portfolios.
The markets dropped significantly and even the VIX hit 40!
Just hoping to tide through this rough period with my portfolios.
Holding cash is still great so keep it there and build the war chest!
PSNY finally recovering. GREAT!
GME undervalued for sure. GREAT!
REITs recovering. GREAT!
YieldMax delivering above and beyond. GREAT!
SATS cheong. GREAT!
Finally got into NVDA. GREAT!
HYSAs delivering nice monthly interests. GREAT!
BOJ intervention. BAD!
Funnily I’ve still held on to my 600K USDJPY position and even upped it to 800K, and have turned from a paper loss of 5K to a paper profit of 3K and counting!
This is my super high conviction trade of the month or maybe the year!
I believe the US is not cutting eyes any time soon, while Japan will not be raising rates any time soon either.
So we are likely to see USDJPY yielding about 5% in carry interest. Almost like placing a leveraged fixed deposit.
At today’s rate of 133.90, I think it will run back to 140.
For me, I only need it to go and test the last three months high of 137.90+ and I might get out already.
Hopefully I will have disciplined to hold this position.
Meanwhile I’m earning about $100 a day just holding this trade because of the carry. Shiok.
Time to make back all that I lost in the new year let’s go!!!
Will update. Diamond hands!!!
Read the public article here.
Hopefully won’t take too long.
Will be great for the whole organization.
Super happy we’ve come this far after so long.
What better way to announce it than during Saxo’s own 30th anniversary party!
#beinvested
So the past six weeks have been quite surreal in the markets.
The Fed has announced QT (Quantitative Tightening) and it starts this month starting at a reduction in Treasury Bill holdings of $50B, rising steadily up until September where it will reduce by $95B monthly. Traders are also betting the Fed is hiking interest rates by at least 250bp this year.
Now back to the past six weeks, the market (especially in the US) has had some time to digest this and clearly it DOES NOT LIKE IT. The market has been tanking since ATH and in the last six weeks have fallen almost 20%!
Last Friday night’s session, the S&P500 index actually touched this 20% mark, which signals an official bear market or recession, but bounced of from there to close still above those technical levels.
Yet the will be more carnage to come as interest rates rise and QT takes funds out of the markets,
QT alone will shrink the market, meaning while in the past, retailers could bank on QE funds to flow in, and cause a meteoric rise in stock markets (and many other correlated asset classes), those in the know will expect the opposite to happen this time around, with a similar opposite scenario playing out.
To make matters worse for the stock markets, as interest rates increase, less market participants can rely on leverage as it gets more and more expensive. Loans become more expensive. Cash becomes more expensive. This will surely further exacerbate the tanking of the stock markets.
What is this going to mean for the retail investor?
IMHO ONLY! DYODD!
Firstly, don’t even think about buying the dip. The pain has only just begun, so no point getting more cash trapped (buy and hold long term liao).
Secondly, consider dollar cost averaging. DCA a small, manageable amount monthly, quarterly, annually. This will help you catch the lows. Yet low can always go lower, maybe even three years of lower lows! So make sure you are comfortable doing this.
Thirdly, watch your loans. As interbank interest rates go up, interest rates on loans will go up. This will impact your loan repayments and thereby your cashflows. Conversely, rates of Fixed Deposits and newly issued Bonds will go up too, so it is a good time to review past commitments and consider some diversification into these asset classes.
Lastly, cash is king. We are heading into a new world order. One where the younger generation may not have seen before. The above global monetary policies PLUS geopolitical uncertainty (Ukraine war, runaway inflation) are bound to continue hurting the markets. Having more cash in hand gives one better peace of mind in times of crisis, and furthermore allows astute investors to deploy cash on the real life changing investment opportunities to come.
Consider this. The last real crash was in 2008’s Global Financial Crisis, and before then was 2000’s Dot-com bubble crash. If you came into the workforce in 2009, you’re a Gen Z and all you’d have ever seen was a bull market. Every time the markets dipped, you just BTFD (buy the dip) and things would go up and you’d make money. 14 years of such optimism. Well as Boomers and Gen X will tell you, you’re in for a rough ride.
Hang on to your hats in 2022. It will be quite a volatile ride.
