Japan Megaquake Analysis

 If a mega earthquake hits Japan on Saturday, July 5th (today) — here’s what to realistically expect when USDJPY opens on Monday, July 7th, based on:

• Current FX market structure (as of July 2025)
• Historic quake reactions
• Global macro context
• The so-called “5th July prophecy” triggering panic

🌐 Assumptions:

• Magnitude ≥8.0, hitting Tokyo or major economic region
• Significant damage/deaths; global media coverage
• Tokyo Stock Exchange possibly closed or delayed
• Current USDJPY context: ~141.5–142 (as of early July 2025)

⏱ Monday Opening USDJPY Reaction (Asia Open – July 7):

Timeframe	Expected USDJPY Movement	Drivers
Sunday night (NY time) / Monday Asia open	Spikes up to 143.5–145 range	Panic risk-off → dump of JPY, algo-driven USD buying, insurance selloffs
Next 6–24 hours	Pulls back to 141–140 if damage is not catastrophic	Repatriation flows begin pricing in
Next 2–3 days	Potential drop to 137–138	Yen strength from insurer flows, reconstruction expectations
If BOJ hints at intervention or eases	USDJPY rebounds back toward 142+	BOJ verbal or actual market support

📊 Likely Market Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	Monday Opening USDJPY	Path
⚠️ Panic Spike Only (short-lived)	50%	143.5–145	Spikes on open, reverses lower within hours
💥 Structural Repricing (severe damage)	25%	145–147	Sustained USDJPY upside due to policy easing expectations
🌀 Quick Recovery (market fades quake)	15%	141–142.5	No lasting move; repatriation balances out
🏦 BOJ Intervenes Immediately	10%	140–141	JPY stabilizes or strengthens outright on policy action

📉 Tactical Positioning (If You Trade This)

• Short USDJPY after first spike: Position around 143–145 level if seen, expecting reversal.
• Avoid over-leverage Sunday night: Thin liquidity = huge spreads.
• Watch BOJ & MOF statements: A single line on Monday can shift JPY 2–3 handles.

Japan Megaquake

 There’s a prophecy that in Japan there will be a mega earthquake on 5th July, 4.18pm.

There’s a lot of fandom around it and it seems that tourists have been avoiding Japan this period too.

I went to buy some USDJPY Puts and shorted USDJPY as well just in case haha.

And then the weekend basically came and went and nothing’s happened.

Well good lah, nothing tragic and we are just gambling for fun.

Will exit those positions on Monday.

Trump-Musk Feud

 This is gold.

Get your popcorn out people!

Here is a comprehensive timeline of the escalating feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, beginning on June 3, 2025, and continuing through June 6, 2025:

🧨 

Trump-Musk Feud: Full Timeline (June 3–6, 2025)

📅 

June 3, 2025

• Musk Denounces Trump’s Spending Bill
  Elon Musk lashes out at President Trump’s new “Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping tax-and-spending package. Musk calls the bill a “disgusting abomination” and says he was not consulted, contradicting Trump’s earlier claims.
  📎 Source

📅 

June 4, 2025

• Trump Retaliates Against Musk
  Trump threatens to revoke federal contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies, including SpaceX and Tesla, in response to the criticism.
  📎 Source

📅 

June 5, 2025

• Musk Accuses Trump of Epstein Ties
  Musk claims that Trump’s name is in the unreleased Jeffrey Epstein files, suggesting that’s why they remain classified.
  📎 Source
• Musk Supports Impeachment
  Musk publicly endorses a Truth Social post calling for Trump’s impeachment and removal from office.
  📎 Source
• Massive Tesla Stock Crash
  Tesla stock drops 14%, wiping out $150 billion in market value, as investors grow uneasy over the feud.
  📎 Source
• Musk Threatens Political Realignment
  Musk hints at forming a centrist political party and reducing political donations, signaling a major break from Republican politics.
  📎 Source
• GOP Lawmakers Rally Behind Trump
  Republican leaders distance themselves from Musk and reaffirm their support for President Trump.
  📎 Source

📅 

June 6, 2025

• Feud Intensifies on Social Media
  Trump and Musk continue trading insults on Truth Social and X, criticizing each other’s policies and character.
  📎 Source
• Tesla Stock Falls Further
  The market rout continues: Tesla shares drop another 8%, adding to investor anxiety.
  📎 Source
• Investor and Political Fallout Grows
  Market analysts warn that the feud may affect policy decisions in energy, tech, and space sectors. Wall Street becomes increasingly cautious about Musk-led firms amid regulatory threats.

🧾 Summary

• The feud has moved from policy disagreement to personal attacks and economic consequences.
• Musk is now openly opposing Trump politically, while Trump is threatening the financial lifelines of Musk’s businesses.
• With GOP support behind Trump and Tesla’s market value plunging, Musk’s influence in conservative politics may be waning — unless he pivots into a new political movement 

Singapore General Elections 2025

 So the PAP won by quite the landslide again. Nothing much has changed from the 2020 outcome. 

1. ⁠Singaporeans are tired of rubbish opposition. Singaporeans look for quality candidates, this applies to PAP candidates too see point (7)

2. ⁠WP is establishing serious GRC strongholds (Aljunied and SK are not even close fights anymore).

3. ⁠Tampines and Andre Low getting NCMP = 12 quality opposition voices in parliament.

4. ⁠Punggol and East Coast WP teams good fight and if they stay on, will dig roots no matter any gerrymandering claims.

5. ⁠This new term we should look forward to see if WP can go from strength to strength to attract even more candidates to challenge in more parts of the island in 2030.

6. ⁠Also all eyes on new PAP candidates with more scrutiny than ever whether they are up to the mark

7. ⁠Most importantly, NCM vs Andre Low showed that incompetence vs quality new comer can really be a close fight!

8. ⁠All winning candidates this term will definitely be judged with even more scrutiny than ever in our history, in 5 years time

Majulah Singapore!

Reverse Berserker Rage II

 Wow.

Second one for the year.

Basically a reverse rage is that I make a HUGE pile of money trading/gambling, then proceed to lose it back to the markets BUT still end up in positive territory.

This is super irritating and feeds even more so to the what could have been scenario like if I hadn’t bothered touching my trading with stupid itchy fingers after my jog, I would’ve been waaaaaaaaaay positive.

Now I’m just a little positive.

Damn sad.

This time round I had an early lucky session with the NAS100 index and was up about 20K, then itchy fingers after it to go into negative territory of -5K, and finally came out positive with a +4K.

This Trump and his tariffs.

Absolutely ridiculous yet so good for gambling in the markets.

Sigh.

Is Black Monday Coming?

  So I posted about Liberation Day, April 2nd coined by Donald Trump sending out tariff to rest of the world and kickstarting the Tariff Wars.

He basically announced tariffs on the whole damn world ( even Singapore got 10%!).

So the following days the markets tanked badly.

By last Thursday the US markets fell 5%.

Yesterday night, it fell another 6%.

There is so much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

Worried about my already trimmed portfolios and the amount of extra hurt coming my way.

Singapore is in for a very tough time ahead. 

I need to think about better pivots.

Maybe an opportunity is on the horizon.

Stay safe and huat ah!

Liberation Day?

Trump has called on April 2nd to be Liberation Day. 

Basically it is when the tariffs levied by the USA on many other nations begins.

Now without going into the politics of it and my own sentiment, let’s take a look from a vesting angle where I personally feel we can be better positioned.

Short USD - tariffs will mean less countries will sell to the US, so demand for USD will decrease. USD will only increase if US interest rates go up (which they are not likely to) or if the IS produces enough to export globally that demand for USD increases

Long JPY, AUD - this then means more global trade via other global currencies. And there are many to choose from but here are my top two choices. JPY is because Japan is poised to raise interest rates, and their currency has depreciated obscenely much in the last two years. AUD is because Australia has been in the doldrums from a poor China downturn for the last two years and with China rising, Australian produce and commodities will be in demand again and AUD will naturally appreciate.

Long China - talk about a waking giant. China performance has been in such doldrums for too long and with Trump’s isolationist policies, China is poised to take on more authority in the world order and that means the rise of China. Will the US regret and start to curb their rise? Only time will tell but China is the largest world power currently capable of challenging the USA.

Long Ex-US Defence - who’s going to be able to rely on Uncle Sam for protection anymore? Everyone and their mothers are already thinking or pivoting to either their own defence more seriously, or looking at other partnerships. This likely means the largest pivot from US defence contractors to Global defence contractors that the world has seen this century.

Short US Equities, Long World Equities - this is probably one of the most predictable arbitrage trades now. The US is isolating and naturally more of the global obsession towards the US stock market for the last ten years, is about to fade. How quickly this plays out would be anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will be soon.

Long Gold - no brainer here, the world is getting very uncertain and Gold is continuously breaking new highs. It is slated to go higher as the world situation becomes very volatile. Holding physical is even better.

Long Bitcoin - this is a little bit of an outlier, but the technical aspect of BTC being a finite store of value (even if it has no utility) is the same argument as Gold. It is just that Gold is the standard store of value in uncertain times and has been around for far longer. 

Anyway all these opinions are purely my own and do not represent any recommendations to trade. Please do your own due diligence when investing or speculating!

Let’s HUAT together!

Donald J Trump

  Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America tonight.

A new era has begun.

One that promises a lot of fireworks globally.

Let’s see what will happen in the next four years.

No doubt there will be very radical changes and volatility in the world.

God bless us all.

Something Massive Is Brewing

 Mega financial update to come soon!

Can’t wait and it is just great news.

HUAT AH!

Singapore Fintech Festival 2024

  Another year, another power booth by Saxo.

This year wasn’t as crowded as last year, but still a very large event for everyone.

Trump Has Won

  And Donald Trump has won the 2024 US Elections.

By quite a landslide somemore!

In fact the Republicans have won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives!

Not really looking forward to the circus to come in the next four years, but in warped way, we could all see this coming from quite a mile away. The world has been getting too woke and it is time to straighten up again.

Good luck to Europe that’s what I’ll say!

Trump Might Be Winning

 As much as the mainstream media hates to admit this, it seems like Trump winning the coming US Elections is a very real outcome.

Bookmakers are pricing him to win.

Many Financial Institutions appear to factor the chances of him winning is higher than that of Kamala Harris.

All this while most mainstream polls show them neck and neck.

In my mind if the bookmakers are giving him shorter odds to win at almost all swing states, then I think he’s got this in the bag, short of a monumental fuckup by Trump’s team.

The problem is that this guy is so shocking that there’s not much else that can shock the markets.

Much as I hate to say it, we should position ourselves accordingly where we can control things.

Short Europe

Short China

Short Allies

Short EVs except TSLA

Short Tech

Long Authoritarian 

Long Gold

Long Crypto

Long TSLA

Long Energy

Who knows markets might take a short plunge but rally heavily again like his first term.

This is going to be a REALLY long four year for the rest of the free world if he wins the US Elections come Nov 5th.

God bless us all.

Saxo Unfiltered 2024

  Last week Saxo Singapore held our fantastic annual macro event, Saxo Unfiltered 2024, for our VIP clients and partners featuring the famous US investor, Jim Rogers! His insights into the markets ahead were really interesting and enlightening, peppered with his signature cheeky humour. Also great to hear the different speakers’ views and takes of the upcoming US Elections. A huge kudos to all our staff helping to make this monumental event in Singapore 🇸🇬 possible and special mention to our partners at CME Group for their strong and constant support.

#saxo #beinvested Saxo Bank 

Mr Market Coming Down

Aaaaaand the market is coming down.

The NASDAQ has reached 17,000 while flirting with ATH of 18,500 just a week ago.

NVDA was done 10% to $760 last night.

TSLA is at $147 last night too.

And this night just be the start.

Even after the war in the Middle East was deescalated.

War in Ukraine still ongoing. Hope Ukraine can find a way to win and soon.

Tensions in the Taiwan Straits rising. Hope nothing happens there.

But the real reason is this.

Markets are worried inflation is too sticky (I really told you so!).

That means we might NOT even have an interest rate cut this year, when stupid market was pricing in up to six cuts this year! How misaligned is that?!

USD Treasury debt is growing uncontrollably.

At this rate all industries relying on loans will struggle. The leveraged banks. Tech. IT. Property. REITs. BDCs.

Crypto is a conundrum. No one really knows what’s gonna happen after the halving. And that is happening tonight.

Gold is flying through the roof, hitting past $2,400 yesterday.

All I can say is to keep some powder dry and have some cash in hand to seize any good opportunities. It feels like volatility is coming back in quite a big way.

Good luck and stay safe!

Global Worries

 Feeling a little worried lately about global developments recently.

Ukraine seems to be losing the war against Russia the aggressor. In the war of attrition, it is already quite a miracle that they’ve held strong on for three years now, but they are beginning to lose ground quickly as more supporting countries turn more right winged.

Israel’s invasion of Gaza over Hamas’ Oct 7th atrocities has turn global moral opinion against them and now seems to be escalating wider with Iran and the US possibly drawn in.

Myanmar civil war where the resistance appears to be gaining ground is a positive thing considering the repressive junta. The junta’s recent law to draft conscripts is so worrying.

Philippines’ South China sea confrontations with China over their nine-dotted line claims appears to be escalating. 

Trump looking more and more likely to win the coming US elections and then he’s going to cause a lot of havoc in global affairs such as stopping support for NATO, escalating trade wars with China and totally neglecting SEA. So worrying.

These current affairs make me think about how and what I need to do to position myself financially, mentally, emotionally and maybe even physically!

Saxo Unfiltered @ Marquee

 We had our most extravagant macro event yet and how epic it was!

Booked out the whole Marquee club (only the second financial institution to do so), turned the Ferris wheel on and wow what a night it was!

Here’re some awesome pictures.

Moving To Cash

 As resilient as the stock markets are right now, I’m beginning to return to cash now.

Why take any unnecessary risk and added costs when you can get 5% interest on a high yielding savings account? 4% on T Bills? And 3+% on SSB?

There’s a war brewing in the Middle East over the weekend too.

Looks like oil will jump tomorrow.

I think stock markets will start to trend down soon and I’ve gotten my shorts ready.

Let’s gooooooo!

Huat ah!

Eighth Berserker Rage Of 2023

 This is the worst!

Just over lunch, with BOJ announcement on the JPY Yield Control Curve that’s been causing crazy volatility in USDJPY, I went to launch a 1.5M long on the high!!!

Ended up losing SGD37K!

OMG!!!!!!

All my hard work last few weeks to keep clean and try to prevent any blowouts, invest wisely and grow my wealth, and I wipeout almost 40K of my networth.

What I dunno how I keep gambling like this man. 

Argh.

All I can think of is that I’m still alive another day.

But this is by far the biggest hurt this year I’m sure!

And just because of a moments folly during lunch hour!

OMG!!!!!!

I think I have to quit trading for 2 months at least!

Seventh Berserker Rage Of 2023

 This is really a tough year for me.

That PE I invested in Polestar, has lost 70% in value.

Then I keep going on these stupid trade loses which are just downright wasting money.

Right after my sixth berserker rage, I put in another crazy large sized same short trade in the NASDAQ hoping for a hawkish Fed rate hike surprise.

And of course that is contrary to the market’s reaction.

I’ve lost another 14K.

Geez.

I really don’t know how to stop.

USDJPY

 Funnily I’ve still held on to my 600K USDJPY position and even upped it to 800K, and have turned from a paper loss of 5K to a paper profit of 3K and counting!

This is my super high conviction trade of the month or maybe the year!

I believe the US is not cutting eyes any time soon, while Japan will not be raising rates any time soon either.

So we are likely to see USDJPY yielding about 5% in carry interest. Almost like placing a leveraged fixed deposit.

At today’s rate of 133.90, I think it will run back to 140.

For me, I only need it to go and test the last three months high of 137.90+ and I might get out already.

Hopefully I will have disciplined to hold this position.

Meanwhile I’m earning about $100 a day just holding this trade because of the carry. Shiok. 

Time to make back all that I lost in the new year let’s go!!!

Will update. Diamond hands!!!