After a really lousy start to November, I’ve toned down my investing for the month.
Still tempted to get into USDJPY but maybe I’ll wait till after my holiday.
I think there is gonna be a Santa Claus rally, as they call it.
Probably market will tank only AFTER the new year.
For now, just making merry and hoping PSNY soars.
Sheesh.
When it rains, it pours.
So quickly went crazy again, this time on FX.
Had taken a view than Liz Truss’ resignation would help pump GBPUSD. Instead it tanked due to all this leadership turmoil. Lost $500.
That same evening, went to long USDJPY at its high of 151.80.
What a joke.
BOJ intervention came in just a few hours later, sending it to as low as 146.20. OMG.
At one point I was down 5K+.
Managed to recover to lose ‘only’ 2.8K.
Ouch.
I need to stop this bleeding any further.
Dammit.
Was hoping to avoid this all year.
Last CPI data came out and the US markets tanked 2% right at open.
I shorted the market.
But the market then slowly recovered and ultimately turned green! Up 2% instead!
What a 4% swing!
I ended up losing SGD 3.5K.
Dammit!
This is the third consecutive hike of the Fed Funds Rate by 75bp, bring rates to 3% now.
Singapore will soon follow.
With the dot plot predicting the Fed Funds Rate to be around 4-4.5%, we should expect more rate hikes in the next two quarters.
Where does that leave us?
The stock market is tanking really badly, USD is so strong against everything, meaning bye bye gold and crypto.
Best bets are treasuries and fixed deposits.
Clear whatever loan you can too.
Small DCAs into equity portfolios.
Save cash next six months so that you can:
A) further pay up any loans where interest rates are going up too quickly
B) place into fixed deposits yielding >4%
C) buy equities on the cheap
The S&P 500 is testing the June 2022 lows near 3600. From its all time high in Jan 2022 of 4800, that has been a huge nine month drop. Once 3600 breaks, we could even see 2900 and below.
Will it rebound?
Not likely as the fundamentals have not changed. Interest rates are still rising, inflation is still too high, there is quantitative tightening going on, and the economy has not felt the full brunt of many of the recent measures yet.
Stay safe out there.
Read the public article here.
Hopefully won’t take too long.
Will be great for the whole organization.
Super happy we’ve come this far after so long.
What better way to announce it than during Saxo’s own 30th anniversary party!
#beinvested
Been seeing this book recommended a lot lately.
A lot of interesting concepts.
Read the summary here.
Here are the nine main points:
We had a roadshow in Raffles Place.
It was our first roadshow post Covid period.
Very fruitful and it was really successful.
Great time to have our newer staff showcase their sales acumen.
We have equipped our new office with an actually working studio.
I had to have a bit of fun with my funny influencer expressions.
Maybe I can be one some day.
Many people have asked where the 'Saxo dinosaur' is in our new Singapore office.
In many Saxo offices, each has its own dinosaur, to remind all Saxonians of how important change is.
Adapt or die.
Saxo Markets Singapore's dinosaut is a live-sized Centrosaurus, a genus of Ceratopsian dinosaurs from the late Cretaceous period of Canada (76.5 - 75.5 million years ago).
It can be found on the right side of our sprawling new reception area.
We had our SaxoWealthCare launch event in the office.
I was one of the speakers.
I remember how anxious I was, having to struggle with my gout recovery, and not feeling very prepared to host the event, nor talk through my presentation piece.
In the end it all came through pretty okay. Definitely not my best moment, but nothing so terrible that people really complained about (maybe they were just being nice!)
Here're some shots of me talking in front of a large audience.
