2017 Trading Resolution

I wrote my trading resolutions last week and one of them was a trading resolution for myself.

Basically I wanted to achieve a 20% gain in my main speculative account with Saxo.

And it has not been a good start at all, with the following significant positions:

1) A large USDJPY short exposure hoping Trump's protectionist policies require him drumming up weaker USD rhetoric. This hasn't gone very well and is currently hovering around the 114.40 area as Japan tries to ease in order to meet its 2% inflation target.
2) A large VIX long via ETF (VIXY:arcx) which has dropped to some of the lowest levels with the US market on a tear upwards. Still holding out for a huge spike though.

Here's the poor performance thus far.

First Berserker Rage Of 2017

Pui!

I did it again.

I think the fault lies in the fact that IG Markets is an online gambling portal.

Also I have a gambling problem.

So combine these together and there is a very dangerous concoction.

A mixture of Spot, Sprint Markets, and Binary Options (now sneakily named Digital 100s, it all contrived to empty my bank account.

Total damage, SGD 2,000 within one day.

Put!

DJT Is POTUS

Following his shocking elections win, Donald J Trump is now the 45th President of the United States, after his inauguration last Friday.

How will the world change from here?

How can be benefit from the markets?

For one, we all know a lot of his policies will be protectionist.

I see a weaker USD as he starts to make US-made products competitive again.

I see a lot of trade deals revisions, leading to less globalized trading.

I see Asia being used as a pawn for many of his policies (especially China and Taiwan, but in part Japan and Korea as well).

I see a lot of conservatism coming back. Big pharma will prosper, defence will prosper and so will the banks.

I see the stock markets going through a lot of volatility, as the optimism is not matched by the actual earnings. Gold will experience a resurgence, the stock market will have more violent swings.

Anyway these are just my personal views. I am quite excited to see how everything plays out.

Setting SMART Goals

There has been a lot of focus on training lately and one of the key concepts is setting SMART goals.

This simply means:

Specific
Measurable
Ambitious
Realistic
Time-factored

Geddit?

And it really makes a difference when we all try to do this properly. The goals are so much more tangible and achievable.

Towards a 2017 of growth and prosperity!

Blogger App Is Down

Wow this will surely chase away a lot of bloggers off the Blogger platform.

The Blogger App is down and there are no suitable replacements. The top two replacements I've tested suck big time.

When I searched online, it appears that Google/Blogger has no plans to update or replace the app anymore, so latest iOS updates result in the app being unable to run, or crashing it easily.

Two of the key advantages of the app were:
1) Ease of posting - just open the app and blog and post, so easy! Going through blogger.com just meant trying hard to post something on a clunky small screen
2) Easy to post pictures - without the app, pictures are almost impossible to post

I'll try to make do with blogging with no pictures for a while more while considering making the switch to other platforms.

Sad!

Death By China

Just trying to get a better idea of how 2017 will pan out.

Peter Navarro was recently announced to be joining Donald Trump's team as head of the White House National Trade Council.

2016 Full Year Trading Performance

This is not totally bad.

I am now trying to consolidate as much of my trading activity into one account.

Saxo Capital Markets does that perfectly by giving me a very good and comprehensive performance report.

My other investment activities, particularly the buy and hold stuff are housed elsewhere.

It has been a good year by my standards.

This is after a terrible first half, straightening out what I really wanted to do and how I really wanted to trade, and eventually coming back strong. This is also considering that my last three years have generated negative returns as well. Hopefully this is the start of something beautiful.

Onwards and upwards.

When The Ice Cream Truck Rolls Into The Office

$1,000 for 100 cups of Llao Llao for all employees, in he office premises!

Considering so many people were OOO, everyone around in office needed to eat at least 2 cups!

Was it worth it? 

Definitely. 

A once a year publicity stunt and staff welfare like this sure brought smiles and envy across social media and internally. It lifted employee spirits and gave employees valuable Christmas cheer. This is how to motivate an existing high performing workforce.

Market Is Looking Irrational

The market is looking irrational.

Since Donald Trump's victory during the US Elections, the market has been on an almost-straight line trajectory upwards, defying most analysts expectations of doom and gloom.

The USD has also been soaring, appreciating against just about every other currency.

A large part of this is due to his victory speeches calling for rebuilding of infrastructure and protectionism rhetoric.

Yet there are some serious points to consider:

1) How is he going to pay for renewed spending? Print more money? Then why is USD appreciating?

2) How clear are his policies? No one really knows for sure what he wants to do globally and how he intends to execute his plans. Probably only he himself does.

3) Just prior to the elections, the markets were all consolidating or contracting on the back of poorer and poorer numbers. Oil was crashing and commodities were dying. How has the world situation changed to be so positive now?

4) Case in point, DBS is close to hitting $18, a higher never seen in more than 10+years. Yet the external scenario of falling oil prices, reducing bank margins and failing O&G sector keeps DBS exposed to plentiful risks. 

5) Today's supposed biggie event, the Italian Referendum delivered a crushing defeat that forced the Italian Prime Minister to resign. The markets took a slight jolt downwards, and then by mid noon started heading up again. What gives?

There are plenty more scenarios to illustrate that seem to beg at irrationality.

Are we at the crux of an impending reversal?

Here's a very good pessimist's guide to 2017 :)

FOMO

FOMO
ˈfəʊməʊ/
nouninformal
anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere, often aroused by posts seen on a social media website.
"I realized I was a lifelong sufferer of FOMO"

It is an acronym for the phrase, Fear Of Missing Out.

With the S&P hitting an all time high, there are irrational entrants caused by the above phenomenon.

Trade safe.