This is from Lars Seier Christensen’s latest FB post, translated from Danish.
If Lars is worried, we should all be worried.
Take care and stay safe out there.
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I'm worried, very worried.
We are facing - or maybe already in the middle - the biggest crisis in Europe since World War II. Yes, the biggest one. Bigger than the fall of the wall, Hungary, Balkan, The Cold War and whatever else you can name.
The situation in Ukraine is terrible - which I have first hand insight into with over 100 employees plus their families in Ukraine trying to take care of right now. The situation in Ukraine is bad, very bad.
Unfortunately, it can get even worse. It's unclear what Putin's game plan is. What is he trying to accomplish?
It is likely that Putin has underestimated the resistance in Ukraine. It has created problems with the supply chains and demoralization of the Russian troops, but also a need to emerge strong despite the setback.
Putin's dead man walking. He won't be president in 12 months, I think. This time he has lost the support from the oligarchs, which he has otherwise kept injury free from previous crises and sanctions. They lost too much to be able to back him up any longer. They want to get rid of him. Also in the harsh way, if necessary.
Putin has destroyed Russia's economy himself in a few days. The financial market is broken and it won't be long before its citizens are without food and basic necessities. It will be a humanitarian disaster, but there will be no help from those who usually help in such situations.
What does a man who has misappreciated everything and knows he's finished? It's hard to predict. He has tactical nuclear weapons on the border of Ukraine. He is whipped to win to survive. Without a doubt, further invasions by other countries, and in a nightmare scenario, use of nuclear weapons.
Also, it comes from people who have insight into Putin's psychology, and whom I have personally spoken to, that he has completely changed his character in the past few years. He has always been power hungry, unsympathetic and calculating, yet rational and strategic. Now he's rambling and behaving irrational, with raging attacks and inconsistent attacks on his own supporters too.
When a man is done and he knows it - and is mentally unstable at the same time - all bets off.
He has removed all threats and critical noises from his inner circle. This possibly means he doesn't even really know how the situation is really. People just don't dare tell him that.
This probably also means he's so hard to get close that he can't be removed in the very short term. But that he knows it's inevitable in the long run.
What can a man like this do?
Like he said he can't lose this war. And he thinks - with some right - western leadership is weak at the moment.
So he will take great chances to press through his will (and personal survival).
I am honestly very nervous about the situation.
And some of the smartest and most well informed people I know are nervous too. This is a concern for me. This worries me a lot.
I believe there is an insignificant risk of a significant escalation within a short time. We probably talk in weeks rather than months. It can be used of nuclear weapons - in real war or in demonstrations of power.
It may be in the form of confiscation of foreign companies, which will simply complete the meltdown in the Russian economy. It will take decades to recover. A banking sector and a stock market that has been broken apart cannot just be restarted.
It can also be in the form of further invasions - at worst in the Baltic States, which will force NATO to act clearly and elaborate.
If this happens, escalation can come very quickly with a man who has no way to survive. Which has turned off for the stream of information and rational analysis. And as maybe the over-bought has gone crazy, at the worst.
I'm sorry to be alarming, but it would be naive to not have a Plan B over a finished man with 6000 nukes. But wtf is that plan b? On a national but also a personal level? Think about it carefully.
We are facing something I haven't seen since my childhood. Back then, people were afraid of a nuclear war - but because there were rational actors sitting relatively safely in their seats, on both sides of the iron carpet, maybe there wasn't really that much to be afraid of.
But this time I'm not sure the same rational approach exists on the Russian side. The security for one's own position is certainly not in Putin's case.
As I started by saying - I am very worried. This could be bad at least. Really bad.
Be prepared for the worst. Hopefully it won't happen, but it's the biggest risk I've seen in my lifetime.
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