Sharing my investment opinions/trade ideas as well as rationalizing them in words. All posts are personal opinions and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or to make any investments. Readers should do your own due diligence at all times.
If you followed my post for long, you’d know I dare not invest in China stocks.
It’s been a long time.
Generally it’s because the risk is always that the Chinese government could easily make a policy change or announce something adverse that renders previous assumptions useless.
That’s said, I recently see a lot of value for many large cap Chinese stocks more because of how beaten down they are.
And I have just started an investment into Tencent, it’s HK listing.
Let’s hope it double from here!
Just to put on record, that BTCUSD is currently at around 60K.
That’s more than half of what it was a year ago.
Luckily I don’t have that much exposure in crypto anymore.
I remember not too long ago I almost bought one full BTC for USD125k OMG.
Lately the NASDAQ has finally come down quite a lot.
Down to below 29,000 last Friday.
Is the AI bubble bursting?
The Mag7 have all come off their highs.
All the compute and AI spin craze have been brought down to earth somewhat.
Let’s see.
Lately been looking at Phase 3 for f this development as it has been launched on sale for quite some time now.
Generally for less than SGD200K, I can now get a 500+sqft high floor 1bed1bath. That is huge!
I will not talk about the benefits as I don’t want to bother with the hype, a lot of it is all over the internet, specifically with the RTS completion and SEZ incoming.
Four key issues with this property compared to the rest I’ve been looking at.
1) R&F the China developer is facing financial difficulties. There is real insolvency risk. What if Phase 3 cannot be completed if the developer goes bankrupt?
Having been onsite, most Phase 3 towers are more than 30 floors built now. So there is high probability that construction will be completed. Both Phase 1 (2018) and Phase 2 (2024) have been completed and were buzzing the numerous I’ve been there. That said I have to acknowledge that there are still implications if R&F goes bankrupt.
2) If R&F goes bankrupt AFTER completion, the township will still be impacted, Phase 4 and Phase 5 will not even start and the property might be abandoned?
Again my assessment is that this is highly unlikely. It is the face of Johor as you enter Malaysia via the Woodlands Causeway. There is no way the Johor government will let such a prominent project suffer unlike what has happened to Forest City.
3) The unit I’ve been looking at suffers from overcrowding density. 10 units a floor, 49 floors, and only three lifts to service everyone?!
This is a risk I am willing to accept. It is prevalent in China and many other countries facing such congestion and they can find ways to make it work.
4) SGDMYR FX Risk is real. Currently at around 3.15, if MYR continues to weaken to let’s say 3.50 or even 4! A SGD200K property even at same MYR value might be worth SGD150K to a Singaporean owner thereafter!
Again this is a risk I have to accept. The reverse could also happen, who knows?
Anyway these are the risks of buying overseas properties and there are many others so it’s just good to document the considerations before I make any actual plunge.
Huat ah!
Been travelling up to JB quite a bit.
Looking at the property there.
R&F Princess.
Coronade Twins.
Exsim Causewayz (wtf?)
Thinking of sinking a small bit into another hard asset.
Can be for investment, can also be for retirement?
Might get stuck for the long haul though.
NASDAQ again.
In out in out until liquid come out.
Pui!
Ended up losing $6.3K.
Sigh.
An unnecessary hit to my Huat year dammit.
There’re several wars going on.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
There is an energy and oil crisis around the world.
Inflation is running high globally.
Yet.
S&P is near ATH, touching 7,500.
NASDAQ is near ATH, touching 29,600.
Dow is near ATH, touching 50,000.
What gives?
I decided to trial using sevens AI engines to help me place a Friday trade.
Below’s my dataset.
Essentially I’ve asked for the best trade recommendations to open on a Friday night, and close by end of day Monday.
I ended up opening a 200,000 long USDJPY position.
Lets see if it huats!
15 May Friday
Gemini | Long Oil |
Short NASDAQ100 | |
Long USDJPY | |
Long Put Options META/MSFT | |
Short AUDUSD |
Grok | Long Oil |
Long NASDAQ100 | |
Long USDJPY | |
Short Gold | |
Long S&P |
Claude | Long Oil |
Long Gold | |
Short EURUSD | |
Long USDJPY | |
Long Infrastructure or Defence |
Copilot | Long EURUSD |
Long AUDUSD | |
Long Gold | |
Short NASDAQ100 | |
Long Call Options NVDA/AMZN |
ChatGPT | Long NASDAQ100 |
Long AUDUSD | |
Long Gold | |
Short USDJPY | |
Long HS Tech Index |
DeepSeek | Long NASDAQ100 |
Long NVDA | |
Long USDJPY | |
Short Gold | |
Short GBPUSD |
Perplexity | Long Gold |
Long USDJPY | |
Long NASDAQ100 | |
Short EURUSD | |
Long S&P |
TOP TRADE IDEAS
CLOSE BY 2359 MONDAY
Trade Idea | Votes For | Votes Against |
Long USDJPY | 5 | 1 |
Long Gold | 4 | 2 |
Long NASDAQ100 | 4 | 2 |
Long Oil | 3 | 0 |
FINAL TRADE
Long USDJPY 200,000
To close by 2359 Monday
Here’s my very own magnificent seven AutoInvest portfolios!
I’m hoping with great discipline, these portfolios will help me FIRE earlier than planned!
1. Boglehead
2. China Power
3. Dividends
4. Greatest Risk
5. JIBVISC
6. Max Aggressive
7. Purely CSPX
The NASDAQ pumped for 11 days in a row.
All while the world is still in disarray. The Iran War is still ongoing and there is a brewing global energy crisis.
So it’s true that the stock markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Take care out there!
This is getting very worrying.
There is an energy crisis unfolding in front of everyone that feels MUCH worse than what the stock market is actually trading.
Maybe it’s just me.
The war does not look like it will end soon, and instead look more likely to escalate.
Oil is already around $110-$120.
Gold has dropped to $4,600.
The NASDAQ is now at 23,500.
All that correlations aren’t making sense.
Yet holding cash is scary because inflation is rearing its ugly head.
Prices are already going up all around us!
Please take care.
Here’s an interesting problem I am currently facing.
Say you invested a significant amount X into a stock that you believe in strongly. A very high conviction stock.
Said stock manages to 2X in six months, at which point you could sell off, realize the gains, place it into fixed deposits and earn $1,000/mth in interest at current interest rates, guaranteed.
OR
The stock turnaround has only just begun and the reasons it has already 2X are the same reasons of very high probability it could possibly propel the stock price to an even higher level of 3-5X in the next 1-2 years.
Which would you choose to do?
There appears no end in sight.
Trump definitely doesn’t know what he’s gotten himself into.
Iran is surviving better than most would’ve expected.
The people in the GCC especially Dubai and Doha, do not seem to be alarmed by the fact that this war is only just beginning and rescue flights can still go in and out of the GCC states. Who knows if this will escalate further and desalinations plants, more oil depots and airports will be completely decapacitated. Only then will true panic set in.
Hopefully this whole situation will deescalate instead but let’s see.
Trump is definitely going to find it very difficult to 下台 now.
It’s been a very weird year so far.
The general feeling is negative.
Life isn’t great, health is great, family stuff isn’t great, work stress is rising.
Haven’t travelled at all this year and have ZERO travel plans and it’s already March.
Yet wealth is increasing at the fastest pace ever.
It’s a very weird year that feels very off somehow.
Hopefully the not so good parts will improve.
The US and Israel have begun preemptive strikes on Iran.
This was somewhat expected considering the recent military buildup and warnings.
Gold and silver will certainly spike upwards.
So will oil obviously.
The stock markets will tank come Monday but there is a bit of dependency on whether there is any deescalation tomorrow.
Always notable that Trump always starts market tanking shit on Saturdays so I would not be surprised if they get back to the negotiating table before Monday’s open.
Let’s see what’s going to happen.
Ok so here’s my goal in the medium term since I am getting on with age after all.
I hope to retire by age 55.
I hope to have at least $2.5m in liquid investible assets at 55.
So there, I said it.
Now to work towards this goal.
This is a great investment tool to force yourself to save for the long term.
Simply open an account, opt into AutoInvest via My Portfolio page, and create your plan.
At present, you can choose from all the top ETFs.
I’ve created 6 AutoInvest plans to regularly contribute $1K into each plan each month.
Can you guess the constituents of each plan based on my plan names?
Is at USD65K right now.
Is it a buy for a long term hold?
Almost half the price from a year ago.
Wow.
On Friday EOS got hit by a short seller attack.
This report by Grizzly Research basically tanked the stock another almost 20% last Friday.
EOS proceeded to request for a halt in trading, stemming the free fall to close at AUD 6.
Mind you it hit a new high of $11.20 just a few weeks ago.
So in my mind clearly Grizzly Research has been actively shorting the stock and then releasing this opportunistic report hoping to tank the stock further.
I can only hope that EOS issues a confident and professional rebuttal. With CEO Andreas Schwer at the helm, I can only hope for the best.
Silver, or XAG fell 30% last Friday against the USD.
Quite the shocker while gold, or XAU fell almost 10% against the USD.
This is against the backdrop of a spectacular run in both precious metals recently.
Everyone and their mothers are rushing to buy gold and silver lately.
Let’s see if it has more room to fall.
EOS (ASX:EOS) Valuation Potential: Path to A$20B Market Cap?
Electro Optic Systems (EOS) is indeed riding a wave of increasing global defense budgets, which have been accelerating due to geopolitical tensions, drone proliferation, and demand for counter-UAS (unmanned aerial systems) and remote weapon systems. Global military expenditure hit approximately $2.7 trillion in 2024, marking a 8-9% year-over-year increase and continuing a decade-long upward trend with total growth of 37% since 2014. Projections suggest this could more than double in the coming years, with Europe alone poised for annual spending growth of 6-7% through 2035, potentially adding €600 billion per year in regional budgets. This environment favors niche players like EOS, focused on high-energy lasers, counter-drone tech (e.g., Slinger), and RWS integrations.
That said, reaching a A$20 billion market cap from the current ~A$2 billion (as of late January 2026, with shares around A$10.48) would require a 10x uplift—a moonshot scenario, even in this bullish macro. Here’s a breakdown of what it would take and the feasibility over the next 3 years (to ~2029).
What Would A$20B Require?
To hit A$20B, EOS would need explosive fundamentals justifying a high valuation multiple. Defense tech stocks often trade at 10-20x forward sales for high-growth names (e.g., peers like Rheinmetall or Palantir in adjacent spaces), or 30-50x EBITDA if margins expand. Assuming conservative multiples:
• Revenue Ramp-Up: If valued at 10x sales, EOS would need ~A$2 billion in annual revenue. Current trajectory: Backlog has surged to >A$400 million unconditional (from A$136M at end-2024), with recent wins like the US$80M Korean HEL contract (conditions met by Jan 31, 2026) and multiple RWS/support deals. 2024 revenue was record-high (likely ~A$300-400M based on trends), with analysts forecasting 66% growth in the next year. To reach A$2B revenue, they’d need ~80-100% CAGR over 3 years—plausible if backlog converts efficiently and new mega-contracts (e.g., US Army integrations, European C-UAS rollouts) materialize, but it assumes flawless execution and market share gains in a competitive field.
• EBITDA/Margin Expansion: At 40x EBITDA (aggressive for defense growth), they’d need ~A$500M EBITDA. EOS is shifting toward profitability with debt repayments on track and acquisitions like MARSS enhancing full-stack capabilities (sensors + effectors for civil/brownfield markets). Margins could improve from cost synergies and scale, but current EPS is negative (-A$0.42 TTM), so breakeven by 2027-2028 is key.
• Market Share & Catalysts: EOS would need to capture a sliver of the booming C-UAS/RWS market, projected to grow 15-20% annually amid drone threats. Key drivers: US market penetration (e.g., via General Dynamics partnerships), hypersonic/laser tech advancements, and geopolitical escalations (Ukraine, Middle East). Spinoffs (e.g., space business) could unlock value, adding cash (~A$128M post-spinoff in early 2025). X chatter highlights backlog tripling and contract momentum, with some investors eyeing multi-bagger potential if peers like DroneShield (DRO.ASX) at A$1.5B set precedents.
• Share Price Implication: With ~200M shares outstanding, A$20B equates to ~A$100/share—nearly 10x current levels. Analyst consensus targets are more modest at A$9-11 (e.g., average A$10.52, high A$13.06), implying flat to 20-25% upside, not 10x. Longer-term forecasts (e.g., to 2027) see prices up to A$12.72 max, still far short.
Is It Achievable in 3 Years?
Entirely possible in theory—defense spending surges could funnel billions into EOS’s niches, and if they land transformative deals (e.g., multi-billion backlog from NATO/EU programs or US DoD scale-ups), valuation could re-rate aggressively. The sector’s seen 5-10x moves in peers during hype cycles (e.g., DroneShield’s run). EOS’s execution has been strong lately, with backlog explosion and no major delays flagged.
However, it’s a stretch and not probable based on current trajectories:
• Analysts don’t project anywhere near the required growth; estimates cap at modest double-digit upside.
• Risks: Procurement delays, competition (e.g., from Lockheed, Raytheon), geopolitical de-escalation, or margin squeezes from scaling.
• 3-year timeline demands near-perfect hits—e.g., revenue tripling annually without dilution or setbacks. More realistic: 3-5x (A$6-10B) if momentum sustains, aligning with 50-70% CAGR.
Overall, the thesis for EOS is strong (green, as per prior checks), but A$20B feels like blue-sky optimism rather than base case. If defense budgets double as projected and EOS captures disproportionate share, yes—watch for Q1 2026 updates on Korea HEL and backlog conversion. This isn’t financial advice; valuations are speculative and depend on execution. DYOR.
Wow.
The US has bombed Venezuela and captured its now deposed leader onto a ship bound for New York!
The US is now basically saying ‘we can do whatever we want, wherever we want, whenever we want.’
Still haven’t made up my mind what the longer term impact of what happened today will be, I do not think there will be a large scaled war.
This appears to be a #杀一儆百 exercise by the US.
Interesting to see how the rest of the world reacts to this.
What a way to start 2026!
#venezuela