There’re several wars going on.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
There is an energy and oil crisis around the world.
Inflation is running high globally.
Yet.
S&P is near ATH, touching 7,500.
NASDAQ is near ATH, touching 29,600.
Dow is near ATH, touching 50,000.
What gives?
I decided to trial using sevens AI engines to help me place a Friday trade.
Below’s my dataset.
Essentially I’ve asked for the best trade recommendations to open on a Friday night, and close by end of day Monday.
I ended up opening a 200,000 long USDJPY position.
Lets see if it huats!
15 May Friday
Gemini | Long Oil |
Short NASDAQ100 | |
Long USDJPY | |
Long Put Options META/MSFT | |
Short AUDUSD |
Grok | Long Oil |
Long NASDAQ100 | |
Long USDJPY | |
Short Gold | |
Long S&P |
Claude | Long Oil |
Long Gold | |
Short EURUSD | |
Long USDJPY | |
Long Infrastructure or Defence |
Copilot | Long EURUSD |
Long AUDUSD | |
Long Gold | |
Short NASDAQ100 | |
Long Call Options NVDA/AMZN |
ChatGPT | Long NASDAQ100 |
Long AUDUSD | |
Long Gold | |
Short USDJPY | |
Long HS Tech Index |
DeepSeek | Long NASDAQ100 |
Long NVDA | |
Long USDJPY | |
Short Gold | |
Short GBPUSD |
Perplexity | Long Gold |
Long USDJPY | |
Long NASDAQ100 | |
Short EURUSD | |
Long S&P |
TOP TRADE IDEAS
CLOSE BY 2359 MONDAY
Trade Idea | Votes For | Votes Against |
Long USDJPY | 5 | 1 |
Long Gold | 4 | 2 |
Long NASDAQ100 | 4 | 2 |
Long Oil | 3 | 0 |
FINAL TRADE
Long USDJPY 200,000
To close by 2359 Monday
The NASDAQ pumped for 11 days in a row.
All while the world is still in disarray. The Iran War is still ongoing and there is a brewing global energy crisis.
So it’s true that the stock markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Take care out there!
This is getting very worrying.
There is an energy crisis unfolding in front of everyone that feels MUCH worse than what the stock market is actually trading.
Maybe it’s just me.
The war does not look like it will end soon, and instead look more likely to escalate.
Oil is already around $110-$120.
Gold has dropped to $4,600.
The NASDAQ is now at 23,500.
All that correlations aren’t making sense.
Yet holding cash is scary because inflation is rearing its ugly head.
Prices are already going up all around us!
Please take care.
There appears no end in sight.
Trump definitely doesn’t know what he’s gotten himself into.
Iran is surviving better than most would’ve expected.
The people in the GCC especially Dubai and Doha, do not seem to be alarmed by the fact that this war is only just beginning and rescue flights can still go in and out of the GCC states. Who knows if this will escalate further and desalinations plants, more oil depots and airports will be completely decapacitated. Only then will true panic set in.
Hopefully this whole situation will deescalate instead but let’s see.
Trump is definitely going to find it very difficult to 下台 now.
The US and Israel have begun preemptive strikes on Iran.
This was somewhat expected considering the recent military buildup and warnings.
Gold and silver will certainly spike upwards.
So will oil obviously.
The stock markets will tank come Monday but there is a bit of dependency on whether there is any deescalation tomorrow.
Always notable that Trump always starts market tanking shit on Saturdays so I would not be surprised if they get back to the negotiating table before Monday’s open.
Let’s see what’s going to happen.
Wow.
The US has bombed Venezuela and captured its now deposed leader onto a ship bound for New York!
The US is now basically saying ‘we can do whatever we want, wherever we want, whenever we want.’
Still haven’t made up my mind what the longer term impact of what happened today will be, I do not think there will be a large scaled war.
This appears to be a #杀一儆百 exercise by the US.
Interesting to see how the rest of the world reacts to this.
What a way to start 2026!
#venezuela
Was a keynote speaker at our annual VIP gala dinner.
I fashioned a pretty good prezzo about AI and what to expect in the future.
Was practicing like crazy.
Quite happy with the final presentation on actual day.
Phew.
If a mega earthquake hits Japan on Saturday, July 5th (today) — here’s what to realistically expect when USDJPY opens on Monday, July 7th, based on:
🌐 Assumptions:
⏱ Monday Opening USDJPY Reaction (Asia Open – July 7):
|
Timeframe |
Expected USDJPY Movement |
Drivers |
|
Sunday night (NY time) / Monday Asia open |
Spikes up to 143.5–145 range |
Panic risk-off → dump of JPY, algo-driven USD buying, insurance selloffs |
|
Next 6–24 hours |
Pulls back to 141–140 if damage is not catastrophic |
Repatriation flows begin pricing in |
|
Next 2–3 days |
Potential drop to 137–138 |
Yen strength from insurer flows, reconstruction expectations |
|
If BOJ hints at intervention or eases |
USDJPY rebounds back toward 142+ |
BOJ verbal or actual market support |
📊 Likely Market Scenarios
|
Scenario |
Probability |
Monday Opening USDJPY |
Path |
|
⚠️ Panic Spike Only (short-lived) |
50% |
143.5–145 |
Spikes on open, reverses lower within hours |
|
💥 Structural Repricing (severe damage) |
25% |
145–147 |
Sustained USDJPY upside due to policy easing expectations |
|
🌀 Quick Recovery (market fades quake) |
15% |
141–142.5 |
No lasting move; repatriation balances out |
|
🏦 BOJ Intervenes Immediately |
10% |
140–141 |
JPY stabilizes or strengthens outright on policy action |
📉 Tactical Positioning (If You Trade This)