Bullish 2024 Ahead

 2024’s tilt is towards a bullish stance.

Bar some type of major war on a global scale (I know there are worrying pockets all over the world right now), it looks like the global economy can chug along nicely.

Interest rates in the US are sufficiently high, with no increases in the horizon, means we are either going to see expected rate cuts or a surprise of zero cuts. In between the expected three cuts vs zero cuts, my personal stance is one cut this year and maximum two cuts.

Main reason for this is that inflation is going to be sticky. And we’re seeing exactly why the stock markets are heading up. Inflation also causes the stock market to go up.

So here’s my own hypothesis below and I am ONLY TALKING TO MYSELF SO THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANY SORT OF WAY.

This is bad of course because at some point, people will not be able to afford (people are cutting back heavily on spending since start of the year, layoffs in tech and finance is crazy high) >> consumer purchases will come down drastically >> companies cannot keep up with their overly inflated sales numbers >> flushed institutional liquidity has to invest to keep up with inflation and expectations >> PE will skyrocket >> bubble territory and ATHs.

We are in ATH territory already but is this a bubble yet? My opinion is that we are not even close yet. PE multiples are still not at euphoric zones and you have stocks like the magnificent seven (GOOG, META, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN) that’s powering into this year with overwhelming strength. 

I also think it is a good time to load up on the magnificent seven but to be very nimble and be ready to sell when we are possibly at the top of the bubble. Of course we will never be able to time where this bubble is so chances are is I will end up buying at the high or selling too early. I am already DCA-ing regularly into a few of the seven, that’s at least my own strategy.

Meanwhile, resist the attempt to short the US markets all through Q1-Q3. Review again in Q4 and see where we are then.

Meanwhile, keep other portfolios separate! 

Dividend portfolio should be kept separate. High interest rate environment has not been kind to it last year but this year it is already recovering and providing some token passive income so I’m glad that I stayed the course. Looking to grow it further as interest rates come down.

Cash portfolio is also growing stronger and this will serve as potential war chest or emergency funds if other portfolios do not perform well. Just save a bit here and there where possible and resist always replying everything into the markets.

Crypto portfolio is STRONG. Just stay for the ride, no expectations but this should 2x or 3x if everyone says BTC and ETH and where it’s supposed to go. Going into the new year up 30% is already a big yay.

Gambling portfolio stopped altogether in 2024 to save money. Lots of money to be saved here if I resist gambling at all and so far so good this year! Just resist losing money to stupid bets.

Hope to huat big big this year!!!

Closing January Out

 Stopping all day trading for the coming three days.

January has been a crazy huat month for me and what a start for the new year it has been on this front! Hopefully we continue in the same vein all year!

Just follow the uptrend and ride the ATH wave!

This year I’ve turned bullish and as much as the geopolitical situation appears worrisome, there is the belief that the US is printing SO MUCH USD that the stock markets can only go one way and that is up.

For January the main profits came from Options, Stocks and the US Indices. Shiok max.

It also means inflation may be coming in strong. So staying invested in the market while keeping an adequate war chest will be key in case the market drops.

Be safe out there.

HUAT AH!!!

Scam Alert

  << SCAM ALERT >> There are scammers out there posing as me trying to scam victims into transferring them money purportedly for attractive investment gains. 

If you have been contacted by someone by phone or social apps you believe to be posing as me and they are asking for funds, please block them and report the numbers or links used to your local police/authorities.

I have attached on my social media, a screenshot of an imposter posing as me circulating on Telegram (neither Saxo nor myself will use Telegram to communicate with you for any official matters). 

Do be wary and stay safe out there.

Weird Trades

 Something really weird happened last night.

For some very strange unknown reason, I woke up at 4.30am.

Instinctively I checked my expiring options positions.

I was holding on to several large short put positions that were expiring, most were ITM, which meant I was prepared for them to be assigned and pay up for the underlying shares.

The moment I logged into my account, it showed my margin unearthly high at 95%! I was almost about to get stopped out!

So I quickly did an additional top up without understanding why, and brought that margin down.

Then I stay up until past 5am until the market closed.

I found out that in the last few minutes of expiry, the price of the underlying stock was moving quite rapidly, hence causing the margin for the options to spike. So very, very luckily I could do a very quick top up so shore up my margin %, else I would have been stopped out of ALL my other margined positions as well!

All in, it was an easy 10K profit which could have been a 5K loss had I breached my margin limits.

Phew!

Furthermore, the underlying stock jumped 6% for a Friday session, which also meant some of my sold puts expiring OTM, meaning I earned the premiums and had more liquidity for the next short put play! Super nice!

Looks like 2024 is not turning out to be so bad afterall!

A Good Jan So Far

 It’s been a pretty good Jan so far.

USDJPY trade finally closed with a really, really, really nice profit!

No unnecessary berserker rages!

BTC breaking out $$$!

Stock markets approaching ATH!

Dividend portfolio recovering from 2023 quite fast!

Hopefully this positivity continues through the year!

Huat ah!

Long USDJPY

 Starting my year with a long position on USDJPY.

USDJPY just turned the new year at around 141 flat.

That’s a 10 big figure move DOWN from its high.

Definitely a lot of room to retrace but it could continue to weaken downwards who knows.

So a small position will do so I don’t get carried away in the new year.

Investment Resolutions Upcoming

 Just like my New Year’s resolutions in my other personal blog, I’d like to commit to some finance-related resolutions too.

Let me have a think and I’ll pen some of my thoughts soon.

Definitely one item is to have ZERO Berserker Rages in FY24!

Also maybe a full year dividend target goal would be nice.

And a significant increase of networth overall.

Hopefully I can be more disciplined and thereby increase my networth and meet other investment goals in this new year.

HUAT AH!