How do you rationalize Trump?
How do you hate a guy so much yet his antics are finally becoming a little more predictable and you are making truckloads of money off the stock markets because of him?
To a point where you feel bad for not pouring EVEN MORE money to make even more money?
Does that even make sense?
Feeling conflicted.
Got another small windfall last month.
Mini yay!
The first thing I did was dump a small little part of it into our end of year family holiday flight tickets hahahahahaha.
Now to save or invest the rest of it.
One key chalk I’ve also recently completed, and very proud of it, is to accumulate a LARGE chunk of AUD foothold. As I’ve written before, I strongly believe the AUDSGD rate at current 0.84 is very undervalued and at some point in the future we should go back to parity. I hope this pays off.
My next big chalk is to accumulate Bitcoin. This is in progress.
Now what else should I do with my windfall?
Hmmm…
So the PAP won by quite the landslide again. Nothing much has changed from the 2020 outcome.
1. Singaporeans are tired of rubbish opposition. Singaporeans look for quality candidates, this applies to PAP candidates too see point (7)
2. WP is establishing serious GRC strongholds (Aljunied and SK are not even close fights anymore).
3. Tampines and Andre Low getting NCMP = 12 quality opposition voices in parliament.
4. Punggol and East Coast WP teams good fight and if they stay on, will dig roots no matter any gerrymandering claims.
5. This new term we should look forward to see if WP can go from strength to strength to attract even more candidates to challenge in more parts of the island in 2030.
6. Also all eyes on new PAP candidates with more scrutiny than ever whether they are up to the mark
7. Most importantly, NCM vs Andre Low showed that incompetence vs quality new comer can really be a close fight!
8. All winning candidates this term will definitely be judged with even more scrutiny than ever in our history, in 5 years time
Majulah Singapore!
Having a lot of deeper conversations with my kids recently especially about them growing up, what they should study, what they should aspire to work as, what their life goals are.
Yet the way I see it, it is their curiosity towards how I have succeeded in my career and my own learnings and mistakes, that help keep myself honest about my finances.
I want to earn more money to live up to their expectations of how rich I am.
I want to invest well enough so I have something to leave for them, and gift to them.
I want to invest in enough stocks so I can talk to them about what they will ultimately inherit from me.
I want to earn so much money that I have the liberty to pay for their school fees, even when they qualify for overseas schooling.
I want to earn so much money that I can realistically walk them through large investments I make and they get to experience these processes first hand through me.
I want to earn so much money that I can gift them investment accounts that they can invest themselves and see the pitfalls themselves.
I want to lose less money so I do not feel the aches of losing money that could’ve gone towards my goals for them stated above.
I want to lose less money so I do not label myself a compulsive gambler.
These are the things that keep me honest with my finances and investments.
I really want to do and be better for them both.
Learnt on my last CPH trip that this brand is among the more expensive wines in the world.
Definitely worth considering an investment.
I went crazy.
Just threw money at NASDAQ KO Options on IG Markets.
Ended up losing 18K.
Such a damn shit stain to a stellar year in profits so far.
Damn man.
Dunno what got over me seriously.
Argh this is really so damn frustrating!
Wow.
Second one for the year.
Basically a reverse rage is that I make a HUGE pile of money trading/gambling, then proceed to lose it back to the markets BUT still end up in positive territory.
This is super irritating and feeds even more so to the what could have been scenario like if I hadn’t bothered touching my trading with stupid itchy fingers after my jog, I would’ve been waaaaaaaaaay positive.
Now I’m just a little positive.
Damn sad.
This time round I had an early lucky session with the NAS100 index and was up about 20K, then itchy fingers after it to go into negative territory of -5K, and finally came out positive with a +4K.
This Trump and his tariffs.
Absolutely ridiculous yet so good for gambling in the markets.
Sigh.
So I posted about Liberation Day, April 2nd coined by Donald Trump sending out tariff to rest of the world and kickstarting the Tariff Wars.
He basically announced tariffs on the whole damn world ( even Singapore got 10%!).
So the following days the markets tanked badly.
By last Thursday the US markets fell 5%.
Yesterday night, it fell another 6%.
There is so much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.
I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?
Worried about my already trimmed portfolios and the amount of extra hurt coming my way.
Singapore is in for a very tough time ahead.
I need to think about better pivots.
Maybe an opportunity is on the horizon.
Stay safe and huat ah!
Trump has called on April 2nd to be Liberation Day.
Basically it is when the tariffs levied by the USA on many other nations begins.
Now without going into the politics of it and my own sentiment, let’s take a look from a vesting angle where I personally feel we can be better positioned.
Short USD - tariffs will mean less countries will sell to the US, so demand for USD will decrease. USD will only increase if US interest rates go up (which they are not likely to) or if the IS produces enough to export globally that demand for USD increases
Long JPY, AUD - this then means more global trade via other global currencies. And there are many to choose from but here are my top two choices. JPY is because Japan is poised to raise interest rates, and their currency has depreciated obscenely much in the last two years. AUD is because Australia has been in the doldrums from a poor China downturn for the last two years and with China rising, Australian produce and commodities will be in demand again and AUD will naturally appreciate.
Long China - talk about a waking giant. China performance has been in such doldrums for too long and with Trump’s isolationist policies, China is poised to take on more authority in the world order and that means the rise of China. Will the US regret and start to curb their rise? Only time will tell but China is the largest world power currently capable of challenging the USA.
Long Ex-US Defence - who’s going to be able to rely on Uncle Sam for protection anymore? Everyone and their mothers are already thinking or pivoting to either their own defence more seriously, or looking at other partnerships. This likely means the largest pivot from US defence contractors to Global defence contractors that the world has seen this century.
Short US Equities, Long World Equities - this is probably one of the most predictable arbitrage trades now. The US is isolating and naturally more of the global obsession towards the US stock market for the last ten years, is about to fade. How quickly this plays out would be anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will be soon.
Long Gold - no brainer here, the world is getting very uncertain and Gold is continuously breaking new highs. It is slated to go higher as the world situation becomes very volatile. Holding physical is even better.
Long Bitcoin - this is a little bit of an outlier, but the technical aspect of BTC being a finite store of value (even if it has no utility) is the same argument as Gold. It is just that Gold is the standard store of value in uncertain times and has been around for far longer.
Anyway all these opinions are purely my own and do not represent any recommendations to trade. Please do your own due diligence when investing or speculating!
Let’s HUAT together!
Is this possible?
Everything I’ve stupidly gambled and punted on this month of March, I’ve made a profit.
Anyhow also it worked (of course not to the point I was deliberately trying to lose money) but making calculated fun bets here and there (short market, short TSLA, short Mag7, short USD, long defence, long AUD, long Gold). All short term mostly intraday bets.
ALL MADE SERIOUS MONEY!
More than made up for overall portfolio decline even!
I wonder if something is up - like I have to pay for it with my deteriorating health perhaps?
This is my third CONSECUTIVE profitable month in my Saxo account and I love it!
I dunno.
But let’s make hay while the sun shines and make the best of things.
Huat ah!