Is Black Monday Coming?

  So I posted about Liberation Day, April 2nd coined by Donald Trump sending out tariff to rest of the world and kickstarting the Tariff Wars.

He basically announced tariffs on the whole damn world ( even Singapore got 10%!).

So the following days the markets tanked badly.

By last Thursday the US markets fell 5%.

Yesterday night, it fell another 6%.

There is so much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

Worried about my already trimmed portfolios and the amount of extra hurt coming my way.

Singapore is in for a very tough time ahead. 

I need to think about better pivots.

Maybe an opportunity is on the horizon.

Stay safe and huat ah!

Liberation Day?

Trump has called on April 2nd to be Liberation Day. 

Basically it is when the tariffs levied by the USA on many other nations begins.

Now without going into the politics of it and my own sentiment, let’s take a look from a vesting angle where I personally feel we can be better positioned.

Short USD - tariffs will mean less countries will sell to the US, so demand for USD will decrease. USD will only increase if US interest rates go up (which they are not likely to) or if the IS produces enough to export globally that demand for USD increases

Long JPY, AUD - this then means more global trade via other global currencies. And there are many to choose from but here are my top two choices. JPY is because Japan is poised to raise interest rates, and their currency has depreciated obscenely much in the last two years. AUD is because Australia has been in the doldrums from a poor China downturn for the last two years and with China rising, Australian produce and commodities will be in demand again and AUD will naturally appreciate.

Long China - talk about a waking giant. China performance has been in such doldrums for too long and with Trump’s isolationist policies, China is poised to take on more authority in the world order and that means the rise of China. Will the US regret and start to curb their rise? Only time will tell but China is the largest world power currently capable of challenging the USA.

Long Ex-US Defence - who’s going to be able to rely on Uncle Sam for protection anymore? Everyone and their mothers are already thinking or pivoting to either their own defence more seriously, or looking at other partnerships. This likely means the largest pivot from US defence contractors to Global defence contractors that the world has seen this century.

Short US Equities, Long World Equities - this is probably one of the most predictable arbitrage trades now. The US is isolating and naturally more of the global obsession towards the US stock market for the last ten years, is about to fade. How quickly this plays out would be anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will be soon.

Long Gold - no brainer here, the world is getting very uncertain and Gold is continuously breaking new highs. It is slated to go higher as the world situation becomes very volatile. Holding physical is even better.

Long Bitcoin - this is a little bit of an outlier, but the technical aspect of BTC being a finite store of value (even if it has no utility) is the same argument as Gold. It is just that Gold is the standard store of value in uncertain times and has been around for far longer. 

Anyway all these opinions are purely my own and do not represent any recommendations to trade. Please do your own due diligence when investing or speculating!

Let’s HUAT together!

Reverse Berserker Rage

 Is this possible?

Everything I’ve stupidly gambled and punted on this month of March, I’ve made a profit.

Anyhow also it worked (of course not to the point I was deliberately trying to lose money) but making calculated fun bets here and there (short market, short TSLA, short Mag7, short USD, long defence, long AUD, long Gold). All short term mostly intraday bets.

ALL MADE SERIOUS MONEY!

More than made up for overall portfolio decline even!

I wonder if something is up - like I have to pay for it with my deteriorating health perhaps? 

This is my third CONSECUTIVE profitable month in my Saxo account and I love it!

I dunno.

But let’s make hay while the sun shines and make the best of things.

Huat ah!

Perth Property

  Recently been quite infatuated with Aussie properties.

Then my wife sent me a leaflet on a promotional seminar on the weekend, so of course I went to check it out.

Basically quite an interesting deal which has made me read up and calculate more.

I have my reasons for wanting to own a property there at some point and maybe I’ll find some time to blog about it to rationalize my thoughts.

Meanwhile, here are some details just for reference.

This one is in Cannington, Perth. It is called Elements at Carousel by The Jean Yip Group.

The Reserve

 Had the chance to visit one of Singapore’s largest gold and silver storage vaults.

This was in Changi and we had a partner taking us there from office.

It was really impressive with a cool meeting and networking area followed by a tour of the actual vaults utilized by the ultra rich.

Maybe someday I’ll have a safe deposit box here in my name too ;P

That gold bar I’m holding below is worth USD1.8m!!!

 

Market Dump Finally?

 The NASDAQ is down some 3.5% today so far.

All signs are pointing to an incoming recession thanks to Trump starting the tariff wars.

Worst counter in my watchlist today is TSLA.

Boy that baby is down a whopping 13% and still looks like there is more down to go.

Who wants to buy those cars with weird Elon projecting and gaslighting anything he comes across now?

My puts are printing brrrrrrrr.

Let’s go!

Kombucha SCOBY

 Hi guys, please scroll down and help vote for my son’s *Team JPH020* submission for MOE’s Singapore Science & Engineering Fair. The team is very passionate about protecting marine wildlife using sustainable material (SCOBY from Kombucha) for fishing nets. It is really quite brilliant!

Video on project is a MUST WATCH!

Vote for *Team JPH020* here! Need to scroll down to find the correct team!

Great business idea!

No More Mortgage

 So last month I blogged about something massive brewing.

Basically we have completed full repayment of our mortgage last week.

It’s such a huge milestone for some reason, and each day nearing the deduction date by the bank felt like something or anything could go wrong.

I’m so glad we made the decision to do it and upon its completion, it really felt really good!

So yay to me and wifey.

Now we’re just waiting for the title deed to be confirmed returned to us in the digital registrar administered by SLA.

Did you know that based on the average private property mortgage size of 500K to 1M in Singapore, assuming 3% loan interest and 30 year tenure, you’d be paying between 250K to 500K in interest to your bank if you just stuck to your loan repayment schedule?! That’s about half your original loan amount that you will pay in interest! People just don’t notice it because they just consider their monthly repayments of 2.5K to 5K and see if they can afford it month by month.

No wonder the banks make so much money!

Anyway I’m not here to educate anyone or advocate anything, and having a longer loan tenure allows people to afford more now with their future earnings. I’d have to take another loan too if I were to buy my second property. I’m just being happy for myself that’s all. Yay little wins!

Now to aim for bigger things ahead.

Suffice to say 2025 has begun well. Let’s hope it gets even better!

Let’s go!

Huat ah!!!

Elon Musk And Tesla

 You know I’ve been fawning over owning a Tesla Model Y for more than a year now.

Despite Elon’s stupid attention seeking antics in the past, I’ve never really bothered much nor let it affect my endearment for a Tesla car.

Even him buying Twitter and using it as a mouthpiece for his stupid thoughts and gaslighting ideas, I’ve not let it affect my wants.

Until now.

First his recent Nazi salute at Donald Trump’s post inauguration event.

Then he did it again.

And now he appears at Germany’s far right party, the one closest to being a Nazi party, to lend his support.

It just doesn’t sit right with me, and from the looks of it, many other people as well. That German Nazi party is a lot of things wrong with the world today. Maybe the world had gone too woke, too liberal. But the way Trump swept the US polls and inspired the swing to the right, is equally scary and ridiculous. Suddenly people are promoting male Alpha conservative lifestyles again, where women are overly subservient to men. Suddenly no one believes in science or facts anymore and can spout nonsense and blatant lies as the truth. Suddenly being always the victim is the way to explain all misgivings in the world.

It is very concerning and I do fear what is to come of the world in the next few years, under the Trump administration. Hopefully it is all bluster and not too much damage is done, but you never know, the world doesn’t need another Putin or Kim Jong Un.

God bless us all!

Anyway back to Tesla. People are now appearing to revolt against Tesla and for good reason. 

I’m even wondering if TSLA is worth a short sell now.

And yes I’m not aiming to buy a Tesla Model Y anymore.

Good riddance.

Donald J Trump

  Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America tonight.

A new era has begun.

One that promises a lot of fireworks globally.

Let’s see what will happen in the next four years.

No doubt there will be very radical changes and volatility in the world.

God bless us all.